Politics, Economics, Technology, Culture
Thread for discussing miscellaneous world issues. This thread is a continuation of World Affairs, which is a continuation of Geopolitics, which is a continuation of War, which is a continuation of War in the Middle East?.
Mega’s Dispatch from England:- Winds of change
Well its been awhile, not much to report from Blighty……………….we had the unmasking of a PE teacher whom blagged his way to the top of British education……..sort of “jussie smollett of higher Ed”.
We also had rather “Dissapointing” news of a bloke whom was out on bale & kept saying he was too sick to attend court………..he spent this “Free time” to Rape & murder 2 women”…the Met Police have apologized so i guess all is well.
The Police have threatened to come down HARD on anyone protesting have “Boat people” living by them……….like a small local town facing 3,000 of them getting dumped into a former RAF base.
Meantime the PM is going around offering to spend money he does not have on some of his pet projects. He been caught renaming existing projects to claim they “NEW”.
Indeed he has a real problem, no money & rates are going up. Its my belief that the US $ falling will force rates higher everywhere & having now past £3 Trillion (Yes i recall pasting £1 trillion not long ago) his options are closing fast, he can either:-
1. Call any early election, yes his party will get KILLED but it might just scrape though to form the next government. (His soon to be sacked one time Labour MP’s would hate this idea)
OR
2. Dig in & try to weather the storm (His one timers want this) but it could wipe out Labour for 30 years!
Tough call either way……………
Oh one last thing, i noticed the TV news channels are now openly doubting anything Trump is saying & now referring to “Iranian government” rather than Iranian remirean.
Cheers
Mike
Hard to imagine how it took them so long. It was clear months ago that nothing said about Iran was worth paying attention to unless both sides said it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/08/patience-is-wearing-thin-with-the-feds-approach-inflation/
⚡️BREAKING: President Trump Is Ready to Withdraw from the War Against Iran If the Strait of Hormuz Is Reopened – WSJ
Donald Trump has told his administration that he could Leave without having Reached a Nuclear Deal with Iran
F Hormuz. The world’s excessive dependency on it has been a weakness begging to be exploited. Developing alternatives is building resiliency.
Nukes are more important.
Mega’s Dispatch from England:- Stealth Campaigning
”
Prime Minister Andy Burnham is embarking on a national tour of the UK to hear public concerns regarding the cost of living. Spending much of August in “listening mode,” his goal is to reconnect Westminster with everyday voters”
Bulsh1t!
Wot is he going to do, prance about like Prez Ford with his sh1tty “Win” badge on?
Nor is this a “JImmy Carter” moment either……….its the start of a Stealth campaign. Andy cant be honest about it because his own party will rise up if they think he is going to call an election.
Thus he doing this, allowing him to gain an advantage & keep his party (Many of whom are about to lose their seats) in the dark. I suspect he been told wot is coming & frankly he got to run NOW ASAP!
We see
Mike
Super excited by this:-
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-2cv-and-smart-car-big-reveals-coming-paris-motor-show
look at the picture, the grey car bottom right…………new sh1tty…sorry city car based on the fiat 500 platform………..
Yen falling again…………..
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US oil reserves have officially fall below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983.
And things are not getting any better if the Middle East continues to be blocked
Brent @ $90………….
It may not “feel” like it, but stocks (VT) are up 20.89% year over year, while gold (IAU) is up 30.24%.
That massively hyped subset of stocks known as the S&P 500 (VOO) is up 19.91%.
All in USD.
Limey power troubles………
In what used to be a rare summertime plea, the British electricity system operator has warned of tight supply tonight.
The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has issued a call-out for extra electricity supply or for energy users to power down this evening as the UK deals with another bout of extreme heat and an eclipse threatens solar power.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/13/chinas-arctic-silk-road-will-transform-global-trade/
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-uk-pm-wants-every-area-britain-house-migrants
Ho Ho Ho………….
Reform’s new prison plan…………………
ALL OVERSEAS CRIMINALS WILL BE DEPORTED TO SERVE THEIR TIME IN EL SALVADOR!
Blight has about 12,000 in jail right now. If Reform win its either you return home to finish your sentence …………….or off to EL SALVADOR Baby 😉
“The disagreement is not just about whether ships are moving through a narrow waterway. It is about how much of the world’s oil supply remains reachable — and how quickly markets could feel a deeper disruption.”
They don’t know either………….
I don’t think anybody really knows. I just posted on it for the geopolitical drama.
For investing purposes, I just watch prices. No he-said-she-said. You can’t get more relevant. You can’t get more comprehensive; they take into account the entire global supply chain, not just one part of it. They’re objective, exact and all you need to know.
Lets see wot is happening………………China is undermining the $.
Germany is about to trade with China WITHOUT use of the $
China is ready to ship large scale Sodium ion battery storage
China is ready to move to large scale new tec Sola power panels
Chip Chip Chip
lol a time honored tradition … US has been undermining the $ for six decades
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-08-14/deutsche-bank-becomes-europes-first-non-chinese-renminbi-clearing-bank
Ho Ho Ho
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/next-mini-cooper-be-inspired-2001-r50-%E2%80%93-and-could-go-rwd
Smaller………..love the rear end, but BMW won’t do it that way
I don’t know what to call that roof overhang in the back (spoiler?), but it’s getting old. Everybody’s doing it. On most cars you could get more interior space for free just by raking the rear widow less. One day clean lines will come back in style.
Wot i miss is the OLD BMW shape, the 1st M3 with wide arches (Like Audi Quattro), at last car sizes look like they getting smaller.
Meantime:-
https://www.carscoops.com/2026/08/dodge-charger-police-return/
Miss the old Crown Vic………….like this but its a hatchback, REAL saloons have a trunk
ahem … sedans have a trunk, saloons have a boot;-)
Gold, Silver & Oil are on the taxiway awaiting take off!
Commodities supercycle under way …
“Non-gold-silver commodities also deserve a closer look in 2026. Gold and silver still look good long term but have run up a lot and are historically expensive. Other commodities not so much. Oil especially is historically cheap and broad commodity indices like the SPGSCI, heavy in energy, could be the sleepers that awake in the coming year.”
– Finster 2025 1217
“The commodities supercycle is here…
For example, a geopolitical shock may lift oil prices immediately, yet copper or gold may lag or even fall as investors cut crowded positions or reassess growth risks.”
– Reuters 2026 0414
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history.
Prices of transportation, goods, food and so on are going to explode
Yet at last check CME futures saw a 65.4% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at its next meeting on September 16, 2026. This will have been tough talking Kevin Warsh’s third meeting as Fed Chairman, with unemployment hovering near multi decade lows and official consumer price inflation way above the Fed’s own inflated target. So if there is no tangible policy tightening, that’s three strikes …
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/moscow-swarmed-600-ukrainian-drones-massive-overnight-barrage
Poke the BEAR
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/18/global-borrowing-costs-soar-to-pre-financial-crisis-levels/
It’s about time! Eighteen years of pathological financial repression. The bad news is it might be back …
The Yanks are coming, the Yanks are coming…………
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6lx2lpl9xo
Trump intervenes in bond markets to calm investors
US treasury doubles amount available to buy back long-dated debt after borrowing costs soar
I feel safer already 😉
https://financology.net/2026/08/05/gold-3/#comment-10552
Brent $93 & climbing…………here we go
Now $94
Almost $95
I’m seeing $86.57 for US crude. Still well below the $112.95 registered in early April but much higher than most of the time since.
Traders dump US bonds as Trump meddling backfires
Wall Street warns president his credibility is at risk after intervention fails to calm market
Please post any further comments on the treasury issue to the existing discussion here:
https://financology.net/2026/08/05/gold-3/#comment-10552
Thanks!:-)
Will do……………….
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The United States allows early sale of winter gasoline to increase supplies in an attempt to mitigate rising prices, per Bloomberg
Wot is “Winter Gasoline”?
Like using a bandaid for a severed arm.
US uses seasonal gasoline blends due to the wide range of temperatures. A lighter more volatile distillate for the winter months and a heavier less volatile one for summer means less variation in properties. Dipping into winter production ahead of season might temporarily ease prices a bit, but of course doesn’t increase net supply over time.
This is about as far from actual news as you can get. No event has transpired; it’s an opinion piece. And a really flawed one at that. Trump has effed up a lot of things, but this isn’t one of them.
While Krugman bemoans a “stagnant” labor market, US unemployment is near fifty year lows. If the absolute number of jobs doesn’t grow when population doesn’t grow, looking only at the absolute numbers is misleading. You can increase the number of jobs by 5%, but if population also grows by 5%, it’s still the same number of jobs per person. Nobody is better off. Except possibly the corporate lobby which pads profits by exploiting cheap immigrant labor.
“If you lined up all the economists end to end, they still would not reach a conclusion”
George Bernard Shaw
“If you lined up all the correct economists end to end, they wouldn’t reach six feet.”
Finster
I see Trump is walking away from South Korea………..
Mike
Canada turns on the US…………..the fiat money spell is broken
The vampires ball is ending…………..
Did Canada Just Sign Its Own Economic Death Warrant?
Mega’s Dispatch from England:-Locked on course
Good morning dear friends, forgive the lack of MDFE but there been very little to talk about. Everyone is riding off in different directions, trying to get to the same place.
Here in Blighty our loved “New” PM is in Ukraine today to say very little. Ukraine will be allowed to produce British Sky Shadow missiles in Ukraine………..gee all they have to do is build a factory & train a workforce…..they brightest people are dead or in a Russian POW camp so it might be hard to recruit.
Speaking of Armed Forces recruitment dear old Blighty is having a bit of trouble. It seem that anyone who IQ is above room temp has NO wish to place their care & wellbeing in the hands of those whom are likely to inconverance them by either cutting off their internet or getting them killed. Indeed we had the joyous event of watching the British government turn their backs on any service personnel once they are of no further use.
Having flooded the nation with assorts from God knows where the powers to be are somewhat upset to find that the real British people are telling them to go to Hell. If you want a army of young recruits why not start with what just washed up on the shores this morning?
Meantime our new PM is about to give Mayors the power to force though building projects up & down the nation. About 10 mayors cover the nation & just watch how many suddenly agree over the wishers of the local people………& how many will suddenly have wifes or other family members on the board of the building company!
Look, these bastards will not stop until the money ends………..which EVERY one is now praying for.
Mike
Agreeable…………….we just need an Energy crisis
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/first-look-suzuki-e-sky-sub-%C2%A320k-ev-due-uk-next-year
Via La France!
https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/nouvelle-citroen-2cv-2028-comment-la-citadine-electrique-a-15-000-e-doit-reinventer-le-mythe-40000611-40000619-photos.html
CIA leader in Moscow right now…………hmmmm
Interesting route…………Was flagged as a miltay fight, flew direct to Lavia then darted across the border to Moscow. Did NOT fly over blighty or France etc…………
Meantime back in Blighty:-
British Gas boss warns UK risks winter fuel shortage
Chris O’Shea says Britain has ‘almost no gas in storage’ because of its reliance on imports
Meantime in China
https://carnewschina.com/2026/08/27/faw-hongqi-made-the-industry-first-solar-sunroof-that-produces-400-kwh-annually/
Keep smacking that Petro $!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.catl.com/en/news/6977.html
Jackson hole this week?
Mike
Ayeah … looks like Chairman Warsh didn’t give Wall Street what it wanted. That was probably the idea. It hoped for more transparency (translated predictability; Warsh has been perfectly transparent, just not predictable). He’s continued to talk about getting inflation down. But so far it’s been all talk … we’ll see if it’s backed up with action.
Mega’s dispatch from England:-Heading down
Well, just been watching a Youtube about Putin visiting a brand new car plant that just opened & thinking to myself “Gee, those western sanctions are really starting to bite !”
Meantime back in Blighty our “New” PM Andy B is looking more & more out of his depth. True he been handed a losing hand of cards, but he looks clueless. He floating allsorts of new Tax plans………..even though he been told they taxing FAR too much as it stands. Options are very limited.
His best bet is to parade his budget in Oct & make cuts, REAL cuts & when the woke insane MP’s (Most of whom would never have been elected in normal times) rear up & start to scream simply threaten a snap election……..either he wins or just loses out. The Woke nutters will be dumped.
Was thinking while out yesterday walking Jess that the West has not only devalued their currency but everything! We build houses now with low energy bricks that will fall apart in short order. At one time going to Uni in England was a BIG deal, you were bright, top 10%. Now any plant pot can go & get a worthless degree.
We devalued our people!
It looks bleak…….
Cheers
Mike
Russia’s federal debt is less than 20% of GDP.
US over 120%.
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/brits-refusing-ww3-conscription-face-34540306
Hmmm…………i wonder how long till “FRAGGING” in the UK Armed forces starts?
I think i heard the case of a chap who almost burn out an Aircraft carrier during the Vietnam war?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-08-31/trump-signalling-gold-revaluation-ft-bill-holter
Trump “One of us”?
Bessent Claims Hormuz Will Be A “Worthless Piece Of Water” In Two Years
You heard it here first:
https://financology.net/2026/06/01/world-affairs/#comment-10407
“Compensatory mechanisms are emerging …”
………………..& wot will rates be?
“The 10 year gilt yield – a benchmark for what the Treasury pays to borrow money – jumped by 0.19 percentage points to 5.25pc on Tuesday, which was the largest increase in the developed world.
It outpaced rises in debt-stricken France and Japan, although the latter’s 10-year yield hit its highest since 1996. “
Last check US ten year was at 4.75% and rising. Bonds are setting up for a rally though, especially if the Fed hikes on the short end. Better yet if Bessent cuts the gimmicks and goes before Congress to tell it it needs to tap the deficit brakes. Big picture though …
Markets In Bondage
Getting back to oil, Brent $94 & climbing………….
Oil’s been a bit of a disappointment considering the breathless forecasts of $200 a few months ago. If you bought then you missed the best part of the rally. Fortunately Financology followers bought right around liftoff.
Meanwhile the bond market is getting darker by the hour. Definitely worth following given it’s the basis for pricing virtually every other asset class. The only thing up today in our Model Portfolios is oil-rich COMT.
“Law enforcement officials at agencies across Florida, including the Brevard County Sheriff’s Office and police departments on the Space Coast, have halted direct use of the controversial tag-reading Flock system amid growing concerns about privacy and misuse nationwide.”
We have them here, Bloody useful
The computer is AI driven…..if the scumbags clone a plate the computer detects it & can suss out which is the false one.
Shootings?
Cars easy to track across city………
Mike
London Stock Exchange turns to crypto in push to revive market
LSE’s tokenised equities are the latest attempt to attract traders and boost City’s competitiveness
Laughable
Next up … Las Vegas opens stock exchange
BREAKING: 🇮🇱🇬🇧 Israel has publicly threatened the UK, relations are deteriorating drastically
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned Britain that any action against Israel would trigger a response from Israel.
He said the era of Israel taking no action in response to measures against it is over, adding that Israel is “preparing” and would respond if Britain “makes a mistake.”
Reports of the Dutch CB swapping Gold held in USA & Canada for Gold held in London.
J P Morgan IS holding a lot in London………..secret grand plan to revalue Gold?
Mike
Imagine if the west stopped antagonizing Russia and China …
Civil war in Ukraine………… Nazi v Nazi,,,,,,,,,,,,,not long now.
Mike
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/prologium-solid-state-battery-mass-production-381-wh-kg
Now in production
Your move, Mr Trump!
Meantime in Blighty
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/suzuki/370293/new-suzuki-esky-ev-coming-uk-ultra-compact-design
Ho Ho Ho…………
https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-the-dollars-not-dying/
Inflation ahead!
Mike
Not Rickard’s best work. The dollar is dying and will continue to do so until the Fed stops debasing it and the political establishment stops weaponizing it.
So is this little dustup over Farage financing real or just a figment of the empire fights back?
Its an attempt to F**k himup as an early election is coming.
Mind you Trump IS firing back, note the Falklands thing & pressure on our bonds.
BTW Today Blighty suspended ALL Army training…no money 🙁
Good one
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rabobank-world-we-knew-it-no-longer-exists
“That is a structurally inflationary backdrop because refined products go into or into moving everything.”
Uhm … sorta. The real “structurally inflationary backdrop” is the whole mindset that we must have everything we want and that getting more of some things comes at no cost to getting other things.
We need more affordable housing, so they say. But “we need” to win a hypothetical AI arms race and “we need” to plaster the countryside with data centers. It seems never to have crossed the mind that construction resources are finite. A worker building data centers can’t also be building homes. A worker building weapons to lob at Russia or Iran isn’t building data centers.
But instead of facing economic reality we like to think in terms of dollar costs. We can devote more dollars to building homes without diverting any from data centers or bombs by simply creating more dollars. So we do that and pretend we can have it all.
Then we act surprised when it turns out to be unaffordable.
Mega’s Dispatch from England:-Miscellany Mega
Oh Ye dear friends, tis a sad tale that ALL of a sudden the penny has dropped. No matter how much “They” wish it Russia is NOT losing to Ukraine. There are many signs that the game is almost up. Not lest that Ukraine forces are fighting Ukraine forces in a Mafia like turf war.
Given the visit to Russia of the CIA chief & now “Bevis & Butthead” I think Trump is trying to show defeat as a victory. Rather like the Vietnam war were the US was still trying to cut a deal even as the NVA was driving though the gates of their Embassy!
Indeed the MSM in Blighty is now preping the ground for Russian victory. I can almost hear the upper class limey assh0les now, coming out with searring comments about Human wave Russian tactics & the West won on points or something………..
One thing that is gaining ground here in Blighty is a sudden “Romance” of the British & French.
Suddenly the French are making an effort to stop the boat people crossing the channel. When blighty was part of the EEC we had excess to the immigration data base & if a boat full of people washed up on our shores we simply ran their finger prints & if they already claimed asylum in Europe…………back they went, THAT DAY!
Anyway i was wondering WHY 2 failed states (almost) are getting into bed with each over & i thought may be its to do with Energy?
France has been thrown out of Africa & there is not much left in the North sea….so where are they going to get Oil/Gas etc?
Falklands
Trump let the Cat out of the bag & the limey scum will have to come to terms with Argentina or they do what Iran has done.
Interesting times ahead guys
Mike
Sodium Baby!
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/catl-consolidating-chile-presence-eying-mid-2027-dispatch-for-first-sodium-ion-batteries
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02150-y
Upshot is nations can make Green energy & STORE it till required, thus a large reduction of Hydro carbons & thus US Dollars.
China undermining America.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/05/jaguar-land-rover-to-cut-4000-jobs-as-trumps-tariffs-take-t/
Meanwhile it’s not at all clear how the US would benefit. It’s already at full employment. Sure, maybe some service sector workers might move to manufacturing, but there is already a shortage of service sector workers.
https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/07/china-reports-4th-gen-lfp-above-200-wh-kg-as-production-line-speeds-hit-7-5-cells-min/
Massive flood of cheap(er) battery
Mike
Megas Dispatch from England:-The Natives are getting restless
I held back from reporting this as i thought it was a just a flash in pan, but i think not.
https://news.sky.com/video/clashes-between-police-and-protesters-after-small-boat-arrival-13582624
1st it was dover, a round 300 guys in black from head to toe (& ski masks) closed the port for a number of hours. Police were VERY short handed but it went off peaceful. Now its spreading.
The BIG one is if they have the sense to close down a major airport, just break in & SIT on the runway!
That will DEFO piss the powers to be off. The problem is about to get very nasty.
Lets recap:-
Bankrupt nation
Flood of new arrivals
The Government will need to make major cuts to welfare.
Motability cars getting stopped
…………..now throw in the lack of Armed forces (They advertising 24/7 for part time recruits).
Then…………..factor in major inflation + fuel crisis+Food crisis.
Ukraine food closed off by Russia, Iran has cut fertiliser output……..an told the farms by me are using horse sh1t instead as its better than nothing. Expect crop yields to fall 50%!
So a nation full of white forgotten people are about to left cold & hungry watching the “New arrives” getting well feed & cared for………….do you think this might lead to some “Tensions”?
I do
Mike
Missing a MDFE
Found … thanks
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/exodus-continues-britains-3rd-largest-taxpayer-escapes-greece
EJECT…EJECT…EJECT!
Abandon ship!
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/dacia-spring-reinvented-sub-%C2%A318k-ev-155-mile-range
The next BIG thing is small cars………..
Ah…………Brent almost $100
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/09/08/hina-battery-scales-korean-sodium-ion-partnership-from-15-mwh-to-10-gwh/
The march to stored energy
https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/tech-companies/meta-already-controls-3-billion-users-now-it-wants-to-turn-them-into-an-ai-money-machine/vi-AA2bNYSK?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&cvid=6aa0da47b9d64df58c61b069193bfe9a&cvpid=6aa0f46be84b4f009d185202370d6231&ei=2
“The next phase of the AI boom could be dominated by companies controlling computing, distribution and billions of existing users.”
You heard it here first.
Mega’s dispatch from England:- Playing with fire
Well here we are, in the middle of an undeclared election campaign. Much jockeying for positions. Labour are in deep trouble, the establishment attack on the Reform party has had little effect.
The Green party is taking votes from them as well. Their leader (Unwashed hippy) with an touch of Charles Manson about him has found a new source of votes……Islam.
Somewhat unhappy with BiBi & Israel they found a new home with his party.
It seems burning Jews is now good for the environment.
This strange mix of LBTQXYZ & violent fundamentalism has Labour worried & not for the right reasons. No, the Greens are stealing Labour votes!!!!
Given this, Labour suddenly decided that a spot of Jew bashing was in order. Thus Labour has suddenly focus like a laser beam on the West Bank building. Strange how it had very little attention from them before apart from the odd tuisk comment.
So yesterday Labour found a Jewish (sort of) minster to announce that Labour will ban any exports from settler areas with in the West Bank. This sad attempt at getting votes has blown up. The MSM is trying to mop up the mess but the cat is out of the bag.
Jewish groups already living in fear are now terrorised by the thought that Labour have started to issue hunting licences on them, Islamic voters think its a weak pathetic attempt at gaining their votes.
Now Labour have to pray to God (Allah?) that no nutter goes MAD & attacks a group of Jews or its the end of Labours chances.
Mike
Hmmm … roughly similar political situation across the pond. The Democrats, which should have clear sailing given how badly the Republicans have been governing, find themselves squeezed from the other side by a radical left faction preaching communism, unlimited immigration and wholesale cultural revolution. They’re still likely to make significant gains this fall but the extremist element will turn off their traditional base and blunt the upside.
NY crude is trading at $96.45 at last check, with Brent at $101.41. Considering the level of geopolitical theater, it’s remarkable how much difficulty oil prices are having moving higher. In the middle of 2008 WTIC reached $147 a barrel with no comparable war drama. And that was over 18 years ago. Inflation alone would put a comparable figure around $250 today. Yet even with apocalyptic reports from the middle east WTIC can barely even sustain $100.
These oil prices are singularly unimpressive. Either the market is lying to us or the media are radically overhyping the impact of two major wars on oil prices.
$5,000………………his polling numbers must be BAD.
Brent $105…..its gaining i think Trump IS running low, big news is Diesel.
Mike
Just another data point in a long series of dumb ideas. The economy is humming along tickety boo – except for debt and inflation – and raining cash could only make those worse.
Virtually no chance of it happening anyway. Typical unfiltered bombast.
What would actually help? Announce an effort to bring down deficits. Raise taxes on trillion dollar corporations … after all, a progressive tax rate structure is good enough for people. Reform Social Security and Medicare. Simplify the tax code. End unproductive wars. But we’ve had multiple administrations worth of easy money, debt and gimmicks instead, and old habits are hard to break.
Now we have Trump complaining that interest rates are too high and sprouting ideas to make them go higher.
Trump announces $500 Obamacare refunds for nearly 1 million people — here’s who qualifies
Too little too late. The Republicans will take a shellacking in the mid-terms, and although the war isn’t helping, it will be mainly due to this issue. I warned many moons ago this would be a problem, and Republicans now acknowledge it. Although it’s long since faded from the headlines, those ACA premiums have reminded voters every month since:
https://financology.net/2025/11/13/rotation/#comment-7883
“Now that the lights are back on in Washington, Republicans have a problem. They have to renew the Obamacare tax credits or face a massacre in next year’s mid-terms.”
They didn’t and they do.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/russia-trump-and-a-battle-over-welfare-loom-over-sweden-s-election/ar
“”Both in Sweden and in the U.S., households usually think that inflation is much higher than it actually is,” Persson said.”
What if households are right and Persson is wrong?
Thoughts from the UK?
Mega’s dispatch from England: The Clash (Not the 70’s Punk band)
Sorry for a lack of MDFE but am not well, Covid type illness. However lets see what we can see.
After telling everyone that the Army has no money for training we had nothing but training going on by my home.
Heavy lift helicopter’s & lots of small arms firing + a lot of heavy stuff as well. Given the BIG advances that Russia is now making in Ukraine i think something might happen soon. Russia now has air superiority over Ukraine as they run out of missles. Wot is not being widely reported is the number of glide-bombs they dropping, we talking in the thousands in the last few weeks!
Russia will get the Donbass & then on to Odessa, making Ukraine a land locked nation & cutting off its food production. Russia mean time has had a bit of a bumper crop this year.
Given these factors + lack of Diesel, Jet Fuel & natural gas things are getting tight, they might feel forced to try anything from a False Flag to placing a “Peace keeping force” in Ukraine.
Now then Reform?
Simple buy off by US tech to stop Limey leftists from taxing the hell out of them & trying to take control of their content…….with an Election on the cards its very welcome!
Cheers
Mike
I have been surprised by how long this war has persisted. I initially thought things were going slowly because Russia was being “nice” by not immediately destroying all electrical, water, and natural gas infrastructure while also destroying all roads used by NATO to resupply Ukraine and all military facilities. I thought it could have been done with missile strikes, keeping Russian soldiers out of harm’s way until they had to occupy the territory.
However, with Ukrainian drone attacks hitting Moscow and blowing up Russian energy infrastructure–all while soldiers are dying–why doesn’t Putin or the Russian people demand a quicker end to the war?
Is it a lack of capability on the part of Russia or is it something else?
I’m sure others here know more about it than I do, but can offer a couple observations. The US has continued to support Zelensky, despite early signals from the Trump administration that it would end the war quickly. That could have amounted to simply withdrawing all support. It has pulled back, but hesitantly and gradually, giving Europe more time to fill the gap. Had Trump decisively pulled all support on Day 1 it might have been over. More generally, wars happen in part because powerful constituencies benefit. Quick, decisive wars don’t provide as much.
Thoughts from the more geopolitically inclined welcome.
A.I getting killed?
Suicide!
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-mulls-military-support-saudis-against-houthis-after-mbs-appeal
I don’t know if to laugh or cry
Both? Saudi integrity is the UK’s interest if energy supply has anything to say about it. The US and EU too. Poor past choices have led us this this point, but given things as they stand, the price of egress is the choice of allowing Middle East radicals to hold the world hostage to the movement of vital global resources. Once you start paying the ransom, you commit to keep paying it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/15/britain-braces-for-a-100bn-hangover/
Thoughts?……………….anyone?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/15/us-mulls-diesel-export-ban-as-prices-skyrocket/
As expected however Saudi jest told them there will be no delivery in Oct.
Mike
The ingenuity of US politicians in coming up with bad ideas never ceases to amaze me. Outright trade bans are simplistic, destructive and extreme. Why not levy an export tariff? It would help limit the influence of international markets on domestic prices while not shutting down trade entirely, and raise a little revenue in the process.
Consumer sentiment is in the dumps despite a solid economy. Goldman Sachs blames ‘lower happiness’
Translation: If our GDP, employment and CPI numbers say the people are happy, and the people don’t think so, it’s the people that are off target. It’s just feelings. No need to reexamine the relevance or methodology of our economic stats.
Love,
Ministry of Plenty
Where is the oil crisis?
Everything getting killed!
Oil?…………………they giving it away!
The UK is providing military assistance to Saudi Arabia because it is “in the UK’s national economic and security interest”, the defence secretary has said.
Last night, the prime minister announced the UK is providing air-to-air refuelling for Saudi jets to support defensive missions against the Houthis.
This might be a good time to recall a pet principle about oil prices I’ve flogged since the days of iTulip. The price of oil is about not one, but two, commodities; the oil and the currency you’re pricing it in. Supply and demand factors for the second have just as much influence on the price as the first.
In one of those iTulip threads eighteen years ago we discussed at length how the oil shortages of the seventies gave way to an oil glut after the Volcker Fed hiked rates to double digit levels in the early eighties.
More recently oil prices, in dollars, bottomed out the day before the Fed meeting last December and reached their recent peak the day before the Fed meeting this September. Today is the first increase in the week since.
Critics of the Fed’s tightening program have repeatedly pointed out in just the last few days that the Fed has no control over the supply of oil. Yet the price of oil behaves as if it does.
What have they been missing?
That the price of oil expresses a ratio of values … that of the oil to that of the currency.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/22/france-draws-up-emergency-measures-to-deal-with-fuel-crisis/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/22/bmw-facing-600m-hit-from-car-mis-selling-scandal/
Ah…………….the Ministry of truth.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6rerlq99w30o
“Reform UK leader Nigel Farage accused Burnham’s government of using the “excuse” of real bot accounts from Russia and India interfering in politics to “clamp down on free speech”.”
Vi la France……………….Baby!
https://www.motor1.com/news/809359/2026-renault-8-gordini-concept/
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/escalation-clauses?triedRedirect=true&open=false
Ah, all those poor BMW/Audi/Merc/SUV owners…………….wot will they do? 😉
https://news.sky.com/video/britain-is-running-low-on-diesel-how-worried-should-we-be-13591501
Mega’s dispatch from England:- Diesel will do
Well, my dear friends here in Blighty its the same old sh1t. With the exception of rising costs & prices, but every cloud has a silver lining.
Diesel, that Devils brew that the powers to be thought would be a great idea to use to power private cars. This evil fluid has enabled so many to drive above their station in life eg own a LARGE SUV/BMW/AUDI/Merc……….
Back in the day most drove ex fleet cars, mostly Fords or Vauxhall (GM). Large ish with little engines producing limited power they posed no troubles for anyone sporting a hot hatch. The Pled had choice, either buy a powerful car & pay the fuel costs or live with in means.
Then the Turbo Diesel arrived………..large cars with V8 levels of torque almost instantly deployable. Thus while a chap could reel in said Pled he could make it some what troublesome come the overtake moment.
This problem was somewhat exacerbated by successive governments buying votes by handing out powerful T/D’s like sweets at a kids party. Once they left the Motability fleet they were sold off so every pleb could have one.
Gas Milage?………….no problem!
With Diesel costing little over £1 a litre it was affordable, but suddenly things are different. With wars going on Diesel has become a LOT more expensive. Now over £2 a litre…………so a 40 mpg car is now a 20 mile per gallon car………….& worst is to come. The British Plebs are being “Preped” for………….£2.50 or £3 a litre 😉
Oh Dear……………………How sad………….very mind.
At £2.50 its a 16 mpg………….At £3 its a 13.3 mpg………….Ho Ho Ho
V8 levels of torque & now V8 running costs Mofo’s!
The Iceling on the cake is talk of shortages & massive Qs &/or ratioing.
Mega’s cup runneth over
Future Shock.
The premature arrival of the future. Sustainable energy has always been on the way. Heck, electric cars were first introduced over a century ago. But primitive (by today’s standards) battery technology and the development of the Otto cycle engine (as well as the Diesel) made the latter more practical for decades. Now the pendulum is swinging the other way.
Rather than leaving it to more qualified institutions like the free market and more qualified individuals like businessmen and engineers, governments and politicians and bureaucrats decided to “help things along” by forcefully inserting themselves into the matrix. The result is rapidly declining standards of living.
Ironically they at the same time have seen fit to erect trade barriers that frustrate the global spread of electric vehicle technologies from areas where it’s been advancing the most. Like China.
The solution couldn’t be clearer.
Traders attack pound in biggest bet since Brexit
How Many Ministries Of Truth Does One Country Need
Mega smells a Rat………..
https://news.sky.com/story/follow-latest-major-incident-declared-and-number-of-properties-evacuated-in-gloucestershire-after-men-arrested-on-suspicion-of-offences-under-explosives-act-13527288
A very fast MDFE:-
The Labour government has just disbanded the Welfare fraud unit. The government (Mega) lose £700 million a year in said fraud. The People in the fraud unit are now going to HMRC (IRS) to fight Tax fraud…………so those who might not be paying enough will get hammered more & those whom should not be claiming will not be stopped.
Also
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/sep/26/andy-burnham-announces-new-scheme-for-first-time-home-buyers-england
Paid for by?
Mega? ;-(
If they don’t tell you who’s paying for it, check in the mirror …
…………..& yet more tax
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/27/burnham-hints-at-new-tax-raid-to-fund-social-care/
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/2252243/diesel-rationing-new-50mph-speed
Ah A “Jimmy Carter” move
Because it worked so well for him.
My rich fiance, 36, refuses to spend $900 on my dream ring unless I kick in half. Is it fair to go sharesies on this?
It might be fair, but it might be pretty tacky too. Tradition is that the engagement ring is gift from the groom to be to the bride to be. Who’s gonna wear it?
That said, there’s plenty of room of individual variations. I was so broke when we got married my bride bought the wedding rings. I didn’t get her an engagement ring until a few years after we were married. But even though we had joint finances by then it was still a gift from me to her and I wouldn’t have dreamed of asking her to chip in. I had taken her shopping for her dream ring but then pretended I wasn’t ready so I could surprise her with it on a special occasion. Her reaction was well worth the wait.
Update on the “Terror” attack…………i could be wrong but it seems the vans where carrying large plastic fuel tanks & hoses. Given the high cost of diesel & the large number of farms in that area i wonder if these guys where out “scrumping” for “red” diesel?
Cheers
mike
SR 71 Blackbird returning to flight?
Mike
Middle East oil exports update. Yonder chart shows total crude exports from the major exporting nations. It may help explain why Trump isn’t in a big hurry to capitulate … IRGC does not have him by the nads. Not that this is a pretty situation nor does it put me in the oil bear camp, but it also helps explain why oil isn’t a lot higher than it is now.
80%………………………..want to buy a bridge?
And your explanation for why oil prices aren’t a lot higher is?
SPR, which we did not have in the 70s
The SPR is not enough. It’s been there all along and the market knows it. $200 oil was predicted in spite of it. It also knows the SPR is running dry. Yet the tightness is infamously in refined products like diesel, near record crack spreads indicating the main bottlenecks lie downstream of crude. The DR article presents factual evidence that most of the oil flow has recovered. We have no factual evidence to the contrary. The fog of war is a real thing, and unless someone posts better numbers, these are the best we have.
Lies About Oil
Here are some other numbers, but not necessary better ones. They’re actually higher … Sharp is right … it’s not no 98%.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/a/ak-ao/ambrose-evans-pritchard/
Trump to send $500 ACA refund checks to roughly 1 million Americans
After reinstating the ACA tax credit cliff, this is like stabbing someone with knife and then handing them a Band-aid to make it all better.
Mega’s Dispatch from England:- Party, Party
Wot a sh1t show……………..Labour party conference here in Liverpool this week. Most of the front bench just mooted the normal leftist nonsense. Tried to cover their failings & NOT talk about the boat people washing up on our shores.
Then the new “Dear Leader” took the stage, he spoke about his 10 year plan (yes TEN!) ..at lest the CCCP only had 5 year ones. His determination that Britain must not be subject to outside powers like Russia (He means free speech enabled by USA).
The Dear Leader also wants to “Look” at a possible RETURN to joining the ECCP……sorry EU. Then he dropped a BIG one………he wants to start a “Working group” to look at a “fairer” election method. In other words if Reform where to get 40% of the vote they be blocked from forming a government by the other parties, like what has just happened in Germany.
Then “Social care” a plan to pay for nursing the very old/sick. Oh Bulsh1t.
From wot i can tell its a bait & switch so they will be allowed to “Recalculate” the rate of inflation ref prices…..its a pension cutting move. The money will go elsewhere & any “Help” will be means tested.
He walfied on about other marxist crap like nationalising all the utilities like Trains/Power/Water etc. Then the bomb shell no one not even him was expecting, he spoke about decision making in the government. The Dear Leader said that he would seek a consensus or comperrise on some of the hard decisions to come, but were that was not possible HE would take the lead &make the DECESSIONS!
He then paused & waited for appulse ……………………………….& waited…………..& waited. Up to that point the party had been clapping like happy Seals, but not now. I was feeding Mum here late dinner & even she noticed “Mike, they not clapping”.
He waited for 10-15 seconds, no a sound………you could have heard a pin drop! The last time i saw any political leader face something like this its was Ceaușescu in Romania in wot turned out to be his farewell address (He & his wife were addressed later by AK47).
In an instant it became clear to him wot he was doing there. Labour have NO intention of cutting welfare spending. The plan is this, carry on spending like drunken sailors, borrow/Tax/Print etc. The new Dear Leader will lead them to a crushing defeat BUT they will survive to fight another day once another party has done all the dirty work!
He is just a caretaker, nothing more.
The Pain in his face was breathtaking!…….not even his front bench clapped him.
He regained his poise a bit & staggered on.
Cheers
Mike
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/09/30/diesel-prices-higher-than-2-a-litre-for-first-time/
Oh dear 😉
UK biggest refinery is to close for 10-12 weeks for “maintenance”, it producers 20% of UK fuel needs. Trump is about to ban exports & 40% of UK comes from US.
Oh Hum
It doesn’t help matters that the Zelensky regime has been bombing Russian refineries.
Imagine how different the world would be if the West made peace with Russia!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/10/01/britain-in-emergency-talks-over-releasing-diesel-stockpiles/
Update
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5zjzjgdeneeo
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/10/02/britain-cut-out-of-european-diesel-crisis-talks/
Continued in World Affairs …