Thread for discussing Iran
The prospects of war in the Middle east have affected asset prices, notably oil. Like oil, gold and stocks are also being driven by other factors, but may be transiently impacted as well.
Oil and gold prices were already trending higher and stocks weakening before this made headlines, and the temptation to attribute broader trends to transient issues should be avoided. Sustained effects depend on how long any such hostilities last and how widespread they become. Of course prolonged or widespread hostilities could have prolonged or widespread implications, but as long as they are limited and temporary, most price effects will turn out likewise, and traders and investors should anticipate prices to be driven by broader fundamentals with the passage of time.
Expect those trends to continue, but also be prepared for any transient effects like spiking oil prices due to fears of hostilities to be reversed once those fears are.
Hmm…………………am not so sure, look at the 3 day war……..it all lead to hyperinflation & BOY would the Wall St crew like that. Given the almost zero growth in Europe an oil spike could finish them.
I was going to do a MDFE but these guys have got it in a nut shell:-
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/torn-roof-british-politics-starmer-stunned-after-green-party-steals-labor-seat
Thoughts?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/restoring-britain
OK, not sure wot will happen, thus i topped off my fuel tank………….enough for 8-10 weeks ish.
Mike
OK, Looks like Pakistan is involved, but not sure on who’s side?
Unless he got a ACE to play this could be a long bloody mess………
Mike
CNN has said Trump is lying ref Iran building an ICBM…….it feels like Trump is grasping at straws now.
He said she said. Either way, about par for the course. Far as I know Saddam Hussein’s purported WMDs were never found. It wouldn’t be by itself a persuasive argument anyway. It’s always been about nukes … even John Kerry, way back in a turn-of-the-century-era presidential debate with George Bush, when asked what the most pressing national security issue was, answered without hesitation: “Nuclear proliferation.”
Ultimately what matters is what happens.
Trump latest:-
“Well, they should make a deal but they don’t want to quite go far enough, It’s too bad. Look, we’ve been playing with them for 47 years, and that’s a long time.
They don’t want to say the keywords “We are not going to have a nuclear weapon.” They just can’t quite get there.
They want to enrich a little. You don’t have to enrich when you have that much oil. I’m not happy with the negotiation.”
No one wants it.
Could go in ways totally unexpected.
Think he looking for an “Off ramp”……………..but Trump is Trump
OK Balloon gone up……………its on!
This could be more like Nixon in 72, ref the Paris peace talks………Linebacker 2…?
Wish EJ was here………….he know wot to do
WTF? If you’ve been following along, you’re already well positioned. You have gold, treasuries and oil, all of which were already trending up.
This for instance was posted back in December, the very day oil started its uptrend:
Outlook 2026
More:
What About Bonds?
Synthetic Systems 2026
Model Portfolios
What to do now? Nothing. Markets are closed. When they reopen, they will have already priced in this weekend’s events and handicapped their implications. Trying to trade headlines is shooting craps; the way to get an edge is to look for what the markets haven’t yet priced in, and that’s what we’ve been doing all along.
We’ve been smoking the markets with no help from current events. For anyone still under the delusion that headline drama is in charge, take a good look at this chart:
Quick … pick out 9-11 … without looking at the dates first. In the scheme of things, it barely registered. The only visible effect was that the dip that was in progress anyway maybe dipped a bit lower. The bear market started before and continued after almost as if nothing happened. The major trend called the major shots and that’s where the major money was made or lost.
And what news event triggered the oil rally that started on December 17? The only coinciding press release I know of was my post.
This is definitely something I’ve learned from following you. What happens in the markets is already in motion…the media always finds the reasons afterwards.
All the posts of the last couple of months couldn’t have been clearer.
Meantime back in Blighty:-
Wall Street hit by UK mortgage lender collapse, raising fears of more credit ‘cockroaches’
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/barclays-shares-fall-possible-losses-collapse-market-financial-solutions-2026-02-27/
🇮🇷 Iran has CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz – Reuters
The IRGC Navy announces via VHF radio that no vessels are allowed to cross, and closes the Strait of Hormuz – Reuters
OK………………Lets just take a moment, wot is going to happen on Monday assuming Iran does not throw in the towel?
If Iran can take Iraq oil production off line? wot sort of Oil price?
Airline stocks getting KIlled?
?
Mike
Mega does some deep thinking:- Goes into Lyndon Laroche mode
What is happening now was 100% expected it was insane to think anything else, but is Trump playing another game………….UKraine?
Europe is NOT allowing him to cut a deal with Putin, what if all this is to cut off their Oil/Gas needs?
Wide thought, but ………….
Ayatollah Khamenei, reported killed by US-Israeli airstrikes, has embodied fearsome anti-Western rule
Israeli officials tell AP Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead. Neither Iran nor US have confirmed
May be…………but so what?
meet the new boss same as the old one…………there are 10,000 of them awaiting
It sounds like you read something into my post I didn’t say. It was two links. Period. But since you brought it up, Khamenei’s death would be a significant development. Reuters and AP seem to think so, and explain why in their stories. It’s hard to imagine how any geopolitical maven wouldn’t regard the death of a nation’s leader, at the hands of another’s military, as a Big Deal.
Trump Declares Ayatollah Is Dead, Vows Bombing To Continue ‘Uninterrupted’
Now this one comes with an opinion. I am concerned about mission creep. What started out as “no nukes” morphed into “no missiles” and then into “regime change”. The first is reasonable. The no missiles thing not so much; they can’t be expected to go defenseless. And their regime is their business, not ours.
There are more creative ways of dealing with Iran. Cultivating better relations with Russia would be a start.
There’s also the question of what happened to Trump’s refresh of the Monroe Doctrine. Wasn’t the US going to stick to its own hemisphere?
More to this than meets the eye?
The Iran Question Is All About China
What the attacks on Iran, Khamenei’s death mean for oil and stocks
Am Guessing but………….
S400 inhiding……….awaiting a “tasty target”
Iran striking ALL the Gulf states (Bar Saudi) their populations are cheering it on as the local vasle governments are only propped up by America force (could we see unexpected Regime change?)
Trump wants, needs a short war………..he likely to get a LONG one!
“There’s also the question of what happened to Trump’s refresh of the Monroe Doctrine. Wasn’t the US going to stick to its own hemisphere?”
This is the last chance for “Greater Israel”……..American empire will be a fraction of this in the years ahead. American people not interested in Israel, more are interested in Palestine.
As the population ages out the Holocaust becomes history much like the Civil war, & no amount of Hollywood films will change that.
I fear deeply that Israel may not survive this.
The Leader of Iran stayed in his home fully aware that death was coming his way, he elected to go out Obi Wan style. In death he has become more powerful than Trump could possibly imagine.
The Iranians are fighting mad, they just had a hospital bombed……all over the World people are enraged. While the “Epstein class” bunder about fighting an capable foe the rest of us are fed up with this crap.
The first casualty was MAGA, its dead, over, finished……..if Iran can hang on absorb the hits….then its “Rope-a-dope” & Iran will come off the ropes. Around late summer ish just leading up to the midterms.
If that is the case, well watch Trump begin sweating……if he loses BOTH houses then he off to court. Frankly i think there are those in the GOP whom would be delighted to rid themselves both of him.
Time will tell………………
Meantime the fallout will be harsh economic wise.
We already had the body blow of insane levels of debt, the panic of 2008, more debt, War in Ukraine/Loss of cheap Russian hydro-carbons,Trump tariffs ……& now this.
Mike
Ah…………the Europeans woke up
Britain has threatened to bomb Iran to prevent further missile and drone attacks on allies in the Middle East.
In a joint statement with France and Germany, the UK suggested it could join attacks on Iranian soil for the first time.
Bricking news
Reports of an explosion at or near Raf base in Cyprus
Futures are now trading and have opened about as you would expect. US Treasuries, gold, and oil are all sharply higher, adding to gains seen in recent weeks, with the lion’s share of the pop going to oil. The USD is also higher in forex trading. S&P futures are down. The numbers are moving too fast to make exact quotes relevant, but WTIC oil is higher in the neighborhood of 8% and gold 2%.
John Bolton has turned on Trump……….
He smelt the wind, can see wot is going to happen.
Meantime here our beloved PM has “Offered” to let the US use UK overseas bases. Given that Israel is using their bases its no big deal.
However i could see the PANIC in his eyes.
Japan has 6 months oil/gas stock…..Oz 3months…..let me assure you european Bastards will have bugger all…………..
UK will have to send ships/planes…………Russia will just love that!
BREAKING:
🇨🇾🇮🇷🇬🇧 Explosion near UK base in Cyprus
Sources confirm blast with damage and casualties unclear – Daily Mail
Am off to bed
3 F15’s down………………
Has any one asked the total cost of this war and thought about how we’ll pay for it? Last night our Kuwaiti “friends” shot down three F-15E’s that cost $300 million, and we’ve already launched several billion dollars in missiles. This thing could cost a couple hundred billion dollars even if our casualties are minimal. This war only makes a bad debt situation worse.
Good question! For a long time the cost of virtually every federal program has been low on the list of considerations, which accounts for the federal debt fast approaching $40T.
War is no exception, whether Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine or Iran. How will it be paid for? The menu of options is short. Taxes and inflation. Given that taxes come nowhere near covering expenditures, it appears inflation will cover the lion’s share. We have a central bank to make it easy. This is how you get everything from rising gold prices to unaffordable housing.
News Flash
US flagged tanker hit……………Trump hints at Troops on the ground…………….DRAFT BABY
Market Scoreboard
Markets’ first day reactions:
Oil (USO): +6.39%
Commodities (COMT): +3.60%
Gold (IAU): +1.32%
USD (DXY): +0.96%
US Stocks (VTI): +0.10%
XS Stocks (VXUS): -1.68%
Silver (SLV): -4.02%
Oil was up big. The USD was very strong. This relates to the big outperformance of US stocks versus XS (the rest of the world). Also to gold’s gains (in USD) not being larger than they were.
But wait … these all need to be taken with a great grain of salt. It is not possible to draw any reliable conclusions that these are due to war news versus other forces. Exhibit A is a chart of gold. Notice how it popped for a few hours and then went right back to its previous business.
The F15’s might have been downed by Enemy action, i suspect Sapper teams with Sam 7’s.
Trump now briefing against his own VP !!!!!!!!!!!!
ALL the Middle East “Leaders” are on the phone to Putin for HELP.
Putin is singing in his bath
I won’t go, i won’t go….i won’t die for Texaco!
I hate this, all i see is victims
BREAKING:
🇶🇦 Explosions over Doha, Qatar.
🇦🇪 Explosions heard in UAE.
🇰🇼 Sirens activated in Kuwait.
🇦🇪Huge explosion was heard in Dubai
Spain is NOT working with the US………………Trump has turned on them & Blighty
Mike
🇪🇦🇺🇸 Trump is threatening Spain:
“The U.S. will continue to use military bases in Spain in the operation against Iran if necessary — whether Spain likes it or not.”
Trump also put an embargo on all Spain trade, explaining that he’d rather have done tariffs but didn’t have the option. According to Trump, Spain doesn’t have anything “we need, except for great people”. He also expressed great admiration for Britain, but not Starmer, saying “”this is not Winston Churchill we are dealing with,””.
Latest news is he has announced the US will provide insurance and military escorts for Strait of Hormuz shipping. This may account for oil prices coming off the boil.
US assets, notably its currency and stocks, have been remarkably strong versus their foreign counterparts this week.
Confirmed!
…………..& if Iran sinks some US hardware he demand “Boots on the Ground”
Mike
Friendy fire?
Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz ATTACKED in Mediterranean
Unconfirmed reports are that this was the result of a Ukrainian drone attack. With America, Russia and China all implicated in a network of overlapping hostilities presently centered on Ukraine and Iran, this may soon be referred to as WWIII.
This is the headline at Bloomberg now:
Trump says US to provide insurance, escorts, for tankers through gulf.
Mega’s war dispatch from England:- Selective news
Well its nice to see the good old Limey MSM once again being VERY selective on wot they report. This morning we had reports the the seas around Iran were open Hell why not book yourself a cruze?……………….this has now been back peddled somewhat.
Then the BIG story is Trump is pissed with Britain, “Your PM is not CHurchill”…….Yep he not drunk all the time & killing Kurds. However the bastards did their VERY best to edit round the fact that Trump is even MORE pissed with Spain as their PM has a backbone & told Trump he cant use his bases in Spain…………..no mention of that little titbit.
Tonight Trump is saying Iran is begging for a “Time out” but its too late for that, he blown up ALL the major targets, job almost done…………sort of reminds me of the Ho Chi Minh Trail
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/french-csg-retasked-to-east-mediterranean-amid-iran-tensions/
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump’s commanders try to brainwash US troops by telling them to prepare for Jesus’ return and issue chilling Armageddon prophecy – Daily Mail
They are telling them that war with Iran is “God’s Plan”
S&P 500 edges up after report of Iran’s secret outreach to US
Along with the Trump administration’s announcement of insurance aid and military escorts for Strait of Hormuz shipping, this is contributing to oil prices coming off the boil. There are good reasons to remain bullish on the broader commodity complex including oil medium to longer term though, as discussed in Outlook 2026. Plus no matter how you slice it, war is an inflationary double whammy … it uses what could have been productive capital to destroy what could have been productive capital … all funded with printed money.
Sorry Guys, this Covid thing has put me back in bed……..
Team Trump is changing “WHY?” every 5 mins.
Ukraine blow a russian LNG tanker Putin just told them he ending Gas shipments to Europe!
NO GAS FROM MIDDLE EAST
NO GAS FROM RUSSIA
How is Europe keep the lights on?
No it’s not. They give multiple whys and the moronic media can only handle one at a time.
Multiple whys are smart. It gives them multiple off ramps.
fwiw I don’t like this war either, but also try to remember that virtually everything we know about it has been filtered and framed by the same globalist media that have been trying to neutralize nationalist Trump since he first entered politics years ago. Expecting it to give us unbiased coverage of anything Donald Trump would be no better than expecting Volodymyr Zelensky to give us the unvarnished truth about Vladimir Putin.
The people are NOT down for this!!!!
Talk round the campfire is “Boots on the ground”………I await Trump to say the “D” word (Draft)….Oh that means you ladies as well……………… 🙂
Mike
How much is the Iran conflict costing the US?
Cost of Living Crisis Continues As Job Market Wanes
Brent now $93!
Mike
OK, they just wacked another tanker in TSOH (The Straits of Hormuz)
So now the administration has added some new goals. Yesterday Trump insisted he will have to approve the next leader in Iran. Today he adds “unconditional surrender”. Either he knows something we don’t or has taken leave of his senses.
There’s no way of drawing firm conclusions before we see firm results, but color me skeptical. I’d rather he focused on fixing America’s problems, but if he had to look elsewhere think he was better off with Greenland and Venezuela.
Latest is the 82nd Airborne is on “Stand by”………..The Nation is half the size of Europe, 62% is mountains………..good luck
Greenland. Venezuela. Iran. Troops on the ground now in Ecuador. He says Cuba is next, and soon.
Yeah … not just about Iran any more, if it ever was. It sounds like it’s time for a new war thread …
To be continued in …
War