Thread for discussing the war
Is it WWIII? Referring to WWIII may be a bit presumptious, but I want to highlight the interconnected nature of the beast. Ukraine and Iran may be distinct geographies, but what’s happening there involves not only Ukraine and Iran, but America, Russia, China, Europe, Britain, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and even Venezuela and Cuba. Iran is a Russia ally. It could also affect what happens in Taiwan. And through financial and economic connections, if not military ones, there may be no place on earth left unaffected.
This article for instance gives a revealing look at the Iran-China connection:
The Iran Question Is All About China
And Venezuela is no island:
Inside Venezuela’s growing arsenal of Iranian weapons
This post is a continuation and expansion of War in the Middle East?. It makes no attempt to unravel the web of interconnected geopolitical issues, but is intended to be a room for discussion about the wars in Ukraine and Iran, including wherever they may spread, especially as the war and its causes and effects cross too many boundaries to be defined or confined by national labels.
Thread for discussion of the war.
Nope
Not WW3………..the death of a system………Sure Trump might throw is toys out the pram but there are others then ready to stop him.
Lets take stock:-
The plan has gone pear shaped, Iran sussed out that the 3D Phased array radar systems in other nations around need to be wacked……….job done. With very limited targeting data Israel IS getting hit, no question.
The 5th fleet HQ is smashed as are most bases & Cia staff (Somebody gave them targeting data) China is getting some shipments out but no one else. With in a week the Us will have blown though most of their stockpiles of top end kit.
This is costing a Billion $ a day, not including losses of said bases & wear & tear on planes etc.
At lest the US will have oil/gas as the prices rise there is no F**king way Trump will want that before mid terms………….he ban the export of Oil/Gas to keep the costs down in the US.
He allowing Oil to India, but not much & i think Europe will be in danger of running out of Gas/Oil!
Gulf states are also now looking shitty as their populations will grow hungary. Indeed no oil/gas out…………no food in. Also the production damage will take moths if not years fix. All those rich types living those Lovely towners are cutting & running. They were also flash crash to the city of London & buying Real-estate in Blighty…………fire sale very soon?
Then there is the Petro $…………..no trade=no debt sold.
…………………& the loudest noise to be heard is Putin singing in his bath…………
Non sequitur. Being the “death of a system” wouldn’t mean it could’t also be WWIII. Even WWI & WWII weren’t widely known as such until after they were over.
Trump demands Iran “surrender”, but with its top leadership gone, who exactly would speak for it?
Trump Ready To Continue Operations Until Iranians “Can’t Fight Any Longer”
We’re not going to get bogged down in semantics, but if this isn’t WWIII stuff, it’s hard to imagine what is:
“Iran says EU ‘legitimate’ target if it joins war: France24”
“The conflict is further drawing in outside powers, with the most significant development being The Washington Post reporting that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on the locations of US military assets in the Middle East, including warships and aircraft.”
“The US also has intelligence suggesting that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components …”
Of course the US and EU have already been involved in Ukraine.
Two active theaters and counting. Dozens of countries, including all the major powers, involved directly or by proxy. And this should be interesting …
“Most Dangerous Geopolitical Blitz Since Bretton Woods”: Trump Says Cuba’s Communist Regime Is Next To Fall
“We’ve got plenty of time, but Cuba’s ready,” President Trump told CNN in an interview on Friday morning. The president told CNN reporter Dana Bash that Havana will “fall pretty soon” and that he will “place Marco over there.”
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump spoke to CNN’s Dana Bash on the phone and told her that liberating the Iranian people is not a goal of the war:
He now says he’d be happy to install an undemocratic religious leader so long as they treat the U.S. and Israel “fairly”
The UK is preparing an aircraft carrier for possible deployment to the Middle East, Sky News understands.
The readiness time for HMS Prince of Wales to be sent into action is being reduced from 10 to five days’ notice.
Crews have also been alerted about a potential deployment in the wake of the US and Israeli war against Iran, according to a source.
The move does not mean that the warship, which carries F-35 fighter jets and would need to be escorted by an array of other vessels and a submarine, will be sent to bolster Britain’s defences in the Gulf and around Cyprus but it does mean the prime minister will have more options to move it faster should it be deemed necessary.
HMS Prince of Wales is based in Portsmouth.
While my link postings don’t imply an endorsement of their views, these come from a respectable source and, especially their perspective on the decapitation strikes and the folly of having sent so many weapons to Ukraine, make good food for thought:
Jim Rickards’ Most Surprising Iran Takes
🇳🇱 Europe is heading towards a severe energy crisis
Gazprom announced that the level of gas reserves in underground storage facilities in the Netherlands has fallen to less than 10%
Mega’s Dispatches from England:- Pump Panic
We not yet at “Gas lines” (@ Jimmy Carter/1970’s) but you can almost smell the fear. Allsorts of comfortable words & phases have been sounded, but i spoke to one guy in the petrol garage whom had just got off the phone from his boss telling him that garage had just been assigned as a “Emeracy outlet” …..for “Critical workers”………looks like trouble ahead & soon.
Meantime the MSM are unsure which way to spin it. Israel is down playing the damage, they trying to say either 95% of Iran’s missiles are getting shot down or Iran is running out. It does not occur to them that Iran has already blasted most of the target’s they needed to & now intends to keep its power dry.
Back on Airforce one we were treated to a very panicked & tired looking Trump telling us that he was attacking because Iran regine went around chopping off babies heads. Trump & his crew can’t even agree on the lies to use.
BBC tonight are trying to spin a “50% support the regime, 50% against” From wot i seen in Iran its more like 99%!
WE have NEVER had a situation were the Middle East was taken off line………….Fun times ahead.
Latest news:- Mission accomplished
Seems Trump just phoned putin to say “almost done everything he set out to”
Iran may not see it that way
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi:
“Negotiations with the United States are no longer on the agenda.”
Though not!
OK, i think we might get to the point that the fighting stops but the oil does not flow
Reports that Iran has begone deploying mines…….
Shell ‘declares force majeure’ as gas supplies halted
Shell is among several energy giants who have reportedly declared force majeure to customers over delays to gas deliveries.
The UK-listed company is exercising the contractual clause freeing it from its obligations after Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at facilities last week, according to Reuters.
Get ready for a false flag on US soil!
The West dumped a vast amount of Oil on the open market………….& it still went up!
Now $95
Yeah just today the International Energy Agency announced an agreement on behalf of 32 member countries to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves.
And just now WTIC oil was $91.57.
That’s up over 50% already this year and several percent just today.
………………& they just blew another tanker
Oil Soars As 2 Oil Tankers Explode In Persian Gulf, Iraq’s Oil Ports Stop Operations
‘World War III has already begun,’ Jamie Dimon claims. Fear mongering or legitimate concern? How to keep your money safe
“In October 2024, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, told a crowd at the Institute of International Finance’s annual meeting in Washington, D.C., that war and nuclear proliferation are greater existential threats than climate change.
“World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries,” Dimon said at the event (1). Since then, global tensions have only ratcheted up further.”
…
“Of course, World War III hasn’t truly begun.”
Don’t be so sure. WI and WWII weren’t called that when they started either.
Oil Prices Leap Higher as Iraq Shuts Down Production At Giant Oil Fields
Dow futures down more than 500 points as Brent crude again tops $100 a barrel
Ron Paul Fears The Dollar Will Be A Casualty Of The Iran War?
Total confusion within the White House………….everyone has their own thoughts on wot “Victory” looks like. In the meantime Steve W is trying to get a ceasefire from Iran & Iran quite righty is telling him to piss off.
America started this war & Iran can see fully that if they stop the US & Israel will simply attack again in a few months.
I fully expect Turkey to do something insane along with one or more of the “Stans”. If that falls though…………well planes flying into building might happen again.
Brent $98 & change right now……………
OK, Iran just took out an oil terminal in Oman………….options getting thin now.
Brent $100+
Mike
Does not look like he wants to Fold:-
IRAN’S NEW SUPREME LEADER:
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, if necessary other fronts will be opened
All US bases should immediately be closed in the region, and those bases will be attacked
The enemy will pay the price and we will seek the compensation that we need
Wars are so much easier to get in to than out of, no?
New Ayatollah’s First Message: Hormuz Strait Stays Closed, Warns ‘More Fronts’ Could Open
“Overnight, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency warned that the Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups could move to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.”
This btw is about much more than oil:
Gas:
“The Situation Is Dire”: Half Of Available Global LNG Tankers Are Trapped In The Persian Gulf
Fertilizer:
There’s a major inflation risk lurking for the economy as the Iran war drags on, and it’s not oil
It’s a generalized commodity shock.
“This btw is about much more than oil:”
LNG is the killer blow, if Europe cant get shipments then Putin has them…………simple as that.
Just my opinions.
We won’t know until it’s over, but this is likely to be another in a long sequence of unwise wars, from Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan. It was a mistake to target Ayatollah Khamenei; it just made them madder. Sticking with military targets would be more prudent. The original objective of denying Iran nuclear weapons was the most justifiable of those floated, but even with that said, it’s not a forgone conclusion than there weren’t better ways of dealing with it.
I have to imagine that the administration was fully aware of the likely effects of imperiling trade through the whole Persian Gulf zone. It may have overestimated its ability to counter them though.
I think it has been a long running mistake not to have taken multiple opportunities to cultivate better relations with Russia since the end of the Cold War. NATO has been poking the bear for years with its eastern expansion imperialism. This resulted in a needless war in Ukraine and, given Russia’s influence there, may have added another in Iran.
Generally the US has been excessively absorbed with global affairs and not enough with fixing problems at home. Trump was elected on an “America First” platform and has for years advocated less foreign adventurism. What accounts for his change of mind? Does he know something we don’t? Or has he simply fallen under the influence of the neocon element that has dominated both major parties’ foreign policy for many years?
If it was gong to be more externally involved, the next level was to at least focus on its own hemisphere, extending and refreshing the Monroe Doctrine that has a long history in US foreign policy. But what happened to that? Mere weeks ago it was all about Greenland, Venezuela and Cuba, then all of a sudden that’s on the back burner. The US has vast resources but not infinite resources. It needs to choose its battles carefully.
There is a different explanation of NATO expansion eastward, most clearly articulated by Dr. Sarah Paine, retired professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. The new NATO nations lived for generations in poverty and oppression being controlled by Moscow. They fled at the first chance they got and want to be part of the western world. They have indeed built far better lives for themselves now, so that was a good plan that worked well. The situation can be explained in that simple way without relying on complicated Machiavellian plots by western nations. Life under Moscow was horrific and they want something different. We should also remember that we tried straight up appeasement to Russia in 2014 when Putin took Crimea. We turned a blind eye and just let him have it, hoping he would stop there. He did not. In that light the idea of :… eastern expansion imperialism…” is less compelling.
I should clarify that I have in mind specifically Ukraine. As I said, just my opinions. Obviously the neconservative movement has its opinions too. I disagree with its portrayal of Russia as unprovoked aggressor; imagine how the US would respond if Russia moved to absorb Mexico or Canada into its sphere and put military bases in there. But let’s say for the sake of argument that they’re conceded. I would then ask at what cost? This is where the choosing your battles part comes in. I would just say here that the US and Israel versus Iran is one thing, the US and Israel versus Iran, Russia and China is another. How much it resembles the former and how much the latter isn’t determined in a vacuum; it takes place in the context of American relations with them.
The US government is broke. Given that it doesn’t repay its borrowings, the costs of these wars is being printed. In other words, it’s being added to rent, utilities. mortgage payments, groceries, etc. This is already provoking political polarization and social unrest. At some point America becomes so weakened it no longer even has the choice to police the world. Then who does?
The greatest stupidity of the 2003 Iraq War was that toppling Saddam(an iron fisted Sunni minority leader) was both a guarantee of instability, and a guarantee of increasing Iranian influence over Shia majority Iraq.
The U.S. spent trillions of dollars and thousands of lives to hand over influence in Iraq, to Iran.
Today, I see a different problem. As seen in Armenia-Azerbaijan, then Russia-Ukraine, then Houthi-Yemen-Red Sea, then Israel-Iran, now U.S.-Iran we are seeing a rapidly changing “combat calculus”.
In short, the price-performance cost of offense is collapsing, while the cost of defence isn’t.
We first saw it in Afghanistan and Iraq, where the U.S. should have learned that countering a $50 IED emplaced by someone paid $200 to do it with a $500k precision weapon, carried by an aircraft that costs $50k an hour to sustain in the air for 10 hours on the other side of the planet is a 4000/1 cost differential that leads to defeat by bankruptcy.
Iran has developed a wide range of ballistic missiles and a wider range of cheap long-range attack drones.
The cost to defend against each ballistic missile and each attack drone is massively higher and not sustainable with current defence solutions in the theatre.
Israel’s Iron Dome system goes a fair way in trying to solve this attack/defence price/performance differential dilemma, but it’s still only a band-aid.
For this war, I’m looking for several things:
1)Iranian popular resistance. In order for this to end, and end with a different leadership structure in Iran requires a populist counter-revolution led by an organic Iranian movement with discrete support from the West. Basically, a less kind and less gentle Solidarity in Poland 1980-1989. But the IRGC/Basij seem willing to do what the Shah/Savak weren’t, which is murder everyone in their way.
Until we see clear signal of key locations and key non-IRGC military/police units defect then current leadership aren’t going anywhere.
2)Iranian regime use of maritime drones, submersible drones, and smart mines outside of the immediate theatre of operations.
Attacks on just a few bulk carriers and container ships along major shipping routes in Indo-Asia-Pacific regions would have significant global economic and political effects.
From a clinical perspective, if this can be wrapped up in weeks, it’s potentially a huge win for Trump in big picture geopolitical terms versus Russia and China.
However, if this stretches out months with rising instability then the potential huge win turns into a catastrophic failure for Trump.
While I think #1 is still possible, that possibility is rapidly declining and #2 is a fast growing probability.
——-
On a semi-related note, Google just purchased a very young Israeli company called Wiz for $32B cash, plus $1B in retention bonuses.
Wiz provides cloud security for Google’s Cloud as well as for competitors Amazon(AWS) and Microsoft(Azure)
This rolls into the AI bubble, but on a slight tangent.
AI doesn’t just represent power consumption, capex, and job dilemmas, it also represents the exact same offence/defence dilemma as I mentioned above in modern conflict.
The cost to attack networks using A.I. bot swarms is collapsing at a faster rate than it is to defend against them.
So I 100% expect to see some high profile cyber events moving forward, as indicated by what this enormous acquisition really represents.
Buckle up. It’s going to be a wild ride.
FWIW I agree with your assessment of the handling of Saddam Hussein. Having had a front row seat for 9-11 (my office was only a few blocks from the Pentagon), I supported the Iraq war at the outset, but came to have serious misgivings about it when Saddam was executed and peace throughout the Middle East proved elusive.
Also with your take on the stakes. Domestically too. How quickly and successfully this is concluded has far reaching consequences. I hesitate to underestimate Trump, but it’s not looking that great right now. His party was already facing a steep uphill battle in this fall’s mid-terms due to the expiring broader ACA tax credits, among other things. It’s on political probation over the war. A poor outcome here could not only give it, to use Obama’s expression, a “shellacking” in 2026, but cast tall dark shadows over 2028. Then what becomes of the whole agenda?
Is it time for Canada to jump ship?
https://www.carscoops.com/2026/03/chinas-biggest-carmakers-are-rushing-to-enter-canada/
Looks like Iran might have bagged a KC 135 over Iraq!
Mike
Western Leaders Pivot To Blaming “Putin’s Hidden Hand” As Iran War Not Going To Plan
“Western intelligence officials believe Russia’s role in supporting Iran amid the US-Israeli military campaign is deepening, alongside potential expanding involvement by China.”
Given the poor state of American relations with Russia and China, this should have come as a surprise to no one.
Large US Refueling Aircraft Downed Over Western Iraq In First Of Iran War
Oil prices surge as Iran escalates tanker attacks, shares fall
Larry Fink says oil could crash below $50 if war leaves Iran ‘neutralized’: ‘Great probability’
This is the kind of expectation I intended to address in https://financology.net/2025/12/17/outlook-2026/#comment-9069. I disagree with with Fink. A commodity cycle is under way independently of the war, and it will play out independently. It is possible that when it’s exhausted, the deflationary undertow takes over, but that would take not only oil, but prices of everything else down, a-la 2008. But that too would be independent of the war, linked instead with a potential credit crisis.
………………………..& how does Larry intend to ““neutralized” Iran?
Mega’s War time dispatch from England:- I love it when a plan goes to sh*t
Oh My where to start?
Here in dear old blighty the “Growth figs” have just come out. Normally the lower than vermin scum can with a lot of creative accounting etc produce a positive fig. Yes as much as 0.1%…….well even with all hands on deck they could not do it this time.
UK Growth @ 0%………………& that was before this little flare up in the Middle East.
So not only are we the most taxed in history but energy costs are going to rocket next month & the 10 year Gilt is @ 4.8% this morning.
Pound is falling, rates will have to rise & the ponzi scam that is the UK economy is toast. Factor in all the Middle Eastern cash now NOT coming to “The City” of London & a house price crash…………& this is not just a recession, its a Blood bath.
Oh My.
MIke
Who needs oil anyway?
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/byd/368078/byd-flash-charging-network-uk-blistering-1500kw-speeds-due-big-demo
Still in search of off ramps. Just my two cents … regime change sounds pretty aspirational at best. I’d rather not have had the war at all, but at this point think they at least need to keep the focus on the original stated basis of disarmament. The less people killed the better. If they were to actually go in and retrieve that enriched uranium that would make for a heroic exit. But that would be pretty aspirational too.
A job for Indiana Jones and what army.
Given what happened i say they go for a basic design, like the one America dropped on Japan. “Little boy”, no need to test it…………knock out say 6-12 of them. You can see why Bibi & co are hidden outside Israel.
Turkey is NOT at this time coming nor are the Kurds……..nope he needs the water way clean of mines etc & can’t wait for a real plan, so just wing it. I would be VERY careful if i was in US high command, look wot happened to Gen Westmoreland
🚨 BREAKING
An Iranian missile strike has damaged 5 U.S. Air Force refueling planes in Saudi Arabia – WSJ
⚡️BREAKING
Iran is considering allowing a limited number of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, only if the oil is paid for in Chinese yuan – CNN
Trump levels Iranian military sites on Kharg Island; spares oil terminals
French Navy on its way…………………….Ho Ho Ho
Few things bother me:-
Why did both China & Russia abstain in the UN?
Why did India after a long history of being neutral suddenly backing Israel?
Something else in play?
Mike
Trump attacks Iran during Ramadan killing a spiritual leader ……why?
Heck if I know. I thought the idea was to go after stuff, not people. You know, U235, missiles, etc. Attacking leaders? How do you suppose Americans would respond if some other country killed the president, or Brits if somebody killed the PM or the king? Even people that didn’t like the president or the PM or the king would be really mad. It’s hard to imagine a surer way to unify a nation against you. Even if the idea were regime change I’d think it would just make it a lot harder. And if you don’t achieve a decisive victory, you leave a still-well-armed country even madder at you than before.
I really don’t understand Trump’s strategy here. He’s spent the better part of a year getting the whole world ticked off at him with insults and bellicose rhetoric, then picks a big fight and expects international support. Not to mention this war started off unpopular at home too and is getting more so. And this from a guy that spent years campaigning on staying out of foreign wars.
Iraq is back!
Iraq fighters using remote drones like in Ukraine to attack US bases…….suspect those bases will be looted/stripped very soon. So Iraq becomes a new front in this sh1t storm of stupidity.
My main question is how long will SPR last?
Could the Empire die in the empty Gas tank of an Americans SUV?
Shipping on volume to Europe very soon
https://carnewschina.com/2026/03/13/new-leapmotor-a05-filing-hints-at-lowering-costs-for-lidar-equipped-evs/
🇺🇸 “Broadcasters must operate in the public interest, and they will lose their licenses if they do not.” — Brendan Carr
The head of the Federal Communications Commission is warning U.S. media outlets to fall in line with government narratives on the war with Iran — or risk losing their broadcast licenses.
“The head of the Federal Communications Commission is warning U.S. media outlets to fall in line with government narratives on the war with Iran…”
TDS media’s usual anti-Trump paranoia. If they were really censoring anything that doesn’t adhere to government narratives, they couldn’t say this!
Mega’s Dispatch FRom England:- Not our war mate!
Make no mistake, the Europeans have less than zero interest in getting into this fight. Everyone keeps saying Trump is crazy, but is he?
Trump wants to dump the war in Ukraine, but the Europeans are not shifting. Now suddenly this “little dust” up happens. True he wants to please Israel & yes on the surface things look like a total F**k up…………….& Yet.
No screams from Russia or China apart from normal expected comments. Both abstained from the vote at the UN. Now Iran sez Turkey/Pakistan/India/China traffic can pass……nothing else.
I assume that its been explained to them that they can have oil for themselves may be a bit more but thats all. Indeed China has already banned the eport from their refinallys.
Its now just a waiting game.
Mike
Oh yes, everything is connected. But where is that famous Trump deal-making? America wants certain things, Russia wants certain things, China … Europe … there must be something that if not makes everyone happy, at least gives ’em something they can live with…
I wonder wot the time line is here?
Yes they can dump oil from reserves but how long?
How much other oil production is still available to them?
Not indefinitely, for sure. And not only does this just last a few months, but it only replaces a fraction of the bottled up supply. But even if it was enough, oil is far from the only thing bottled up … there’s also natural gas, fertilizer needed for crops, helium needed for chip production … the only solution is to either open up the Strait of Hormuz or develop alternatives. Some supplies can be diverted to the Strait of Babel Mandeb, but even that is under threat. There are other alternative supply lines too, but they could take years to develop.
The Emperor has no clothes
Trump has cards up his sleeve but doesn’t want to play them. He’s been trying to unilaterally dictate everything, and that won’t work. Russia and China have been supporting Iran behind the scenes. He may soon come to the realization he has to do a little old fashioned horse trading.
Gold & Silver holding up well i thought
Gold has come to a fork in the road. It’s sitting on the lower bound of the uptrend channel established before the big spike in January. If it slips materially lower, the trend is broken. If it doesn’t, it isn’t.
That’s just near term though. Either way, longer term it’s hard to see paper outperforming gold, especially with unpayable federal debt creating immense pressure to inflate.
An encouraging sign … gold has recently been locked into stocks and not providing any ballast to stocks when they sell off … there are now early signs it may be starting to trade higher with oil and decouple from stocks.
This trend channel is now broken, making further near term declines probable.
Why am SHOCKED, SHOCKED by this:-
Trading on the London Metal Exchange was halted for more than two hours this afternoon, leaving dealers unable to place orders in markets including aluminium and zinc.
The outage, which was triggered by an issue with the exchange’s primary electronic matching engine, came at a critical time of the month for metals trading and also as global commodity prices are being upended by the war in Iran.
It’s the latest in a string of issues for metals markets, with the LME hit by a one-hour delay to the start of trading on January 30 while rival CME Group faced a 10-hour suspension that sparked chaos in global markets in November.
⚡️BREAKING
TRUMP SAYS HE HAS CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ:
Hormuz is a beautiful place
But because of us not them (Iran), you don’t really want to be sailing there right now
🇨🇳 China has ordered exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends, according to Bloomberg.
China is the world’s largest fertilizer producer.
Mega’s War time dispatch from England:- Pompous pricks
There is a strange chartistic of the British, well English upper class that when they become connered in a fight & they have bugger all chance of winning they get all pompous. This morning the BBC news did just that.
It seems it just dawned on the British that yes a few tankers are getting though but its very much a case of “Friends & Family” not oil flowing to the open market. That oil is going to be processed & used NOT EXPORTED TO THEM!
The BBC (the mouth piece of the regime) just blew. They brought on a special correspondent (Intel plant) to express the feeling. I keep it short, it was a mix of anger, fear & an upper-class displeasure …………Why are the natives behaving like this?!……….Where are the Americans?!
But my dear chap the Americans have “Invited” you to join them in this enterprise.
Game on, got popcorn?
Mike
Thanks Mike. I think a big part of Trump’s push for international support is appearances … to make it look more like an international community versus Iran than just America and Israel. Iran is tough, but also because it’s not just Iran, there’s Russia and China supporting it too. It’s part proxy war; the global dimension shouldn’t be underestimated.
It matters which parties get access to oil flows, but not as much as it might first appear … oil is a “liquid” asset … there’s just so much to go around and if one party gets more from one source, that’s just that much less taken from the pool available to others. US doesn’t need the oil; most of it was going to China anyway. This isn’t to say oil prices will go back to being the way they were; they were going up anyway, but it helps to keep this in mind when trying to sort out what’s driving markets.
You can almost hear the next shoe to drop. Trump will have a rationale to drop all support for NATO in Ukraine.
Body blow
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-appointed-nctc-director-joe-kent-resigns-protest-over-us-war-iran
Not as bad as it sounds. Kent says he sees “no imminent threat”, essentially conceding there may be a threat. If his argument is to do nothing until the threat is imminent, reasonable people could disagree. There are much better grounds to oppose this war.
Yet there is also a concern that it might have crossed a Rubicon of sorts. The prospect of it ending with a wounded, angry Iran on track to be a wounded, angry, nuclear Iran is not attractive, even uglier than this war. There is no “undo” button for what has already transpired.
If I were Trump I would be extra nice to Russia and China.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a similar view is widely shared in the Gulf states:
Gulf states want the US to cripple Iranian regime before ending war
“ABU DHABI—Battered by Iranian strikes and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates and some fellow Persian Gulf states have come to view Iran’s theocracy as an existential enemy. They now want the regime they once courted to be neutered, if not dismantled, when the conflict ends—so the ordeal is never repeated.”
“Leaving Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz once the guns fall silent would be a disaster for the Gulf states, said Muhanad Seloom, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies in Qatar.”
In case there was any doubt that the US was going up against not merely Iran, but against Russia and China:
Footage Appears To Show China Mass-Producing Iranian-Style Kamikaze Drones
“Britain’s former security minister Tom Tugendhat commented on the report on X, saying, “Oh look – Iranian and Russian Shahed drones are being mass produced in China.””
BTW in this context “drones” appears to be just a new word for “cruise missiles”.
“China just told its exporters to stop shipping nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends abroad. China is the world’s largest fertilizer producer. When it closes the spigot, the entire planet feels the drought. This is not a supply chain story, this is a food security story. A human impact story, and if you know your history, it is also a story about what happens in the streets when bread becomes a luxury.”
🇺🇸 President Trump says he is thinking about leaving NATO after most of the countries refused to help him with the war with Iran
He says he doesn’t need approval from Congress.
If you listen carefully, you can almost hear the next shoe dropping. Trump will have a rationale to drop all support for NATO in Ukraine. The possibility it will have been by design can’t be ruled out.
“…The possibility it will have been by design can’t be ruled out…”
Indeed
No kick off to Venezuelan invasion, Syria handed over, Cuba about to be………China allowed to invest in Africa, Europe booted OUT of Africa……& VERY limited action on Ukraine.
…………………..Just saying
Oh what a tangled web it is …
Russia Seeks To Keep Iran ‘In The Fight’ As Pentagon Eyes Mass Kamikaze Drone Production
America and Russia in a two front war:
“On Tuesday afternoon the WSJ is reporting on two trends which suggesting a creeping internationalization of the Iran conflict. First, it says Russia is trying to keep its regional ally Iran “in the fight” through expanded intelligence-sharing. “Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of U.S. forces in the region, people familiar with the matter said,” the publication writes. This might prolong the war, keeping the US and Israel bogged down, to the geostrategic benefit of Moscow. There are reports that China too is doing more to step up support, but there’s little in the way of specifics that can ultimately be verified. Are superpowers starting to get into a drone-lobbing competition over the Gulf?”
Just one example of the costs of years of squandered opportunities to cultivate a better relationship with Russia.
🇬🇧🇺🇸🇮🇷 UK PM Kier Starmer hits back at Donald Trump after he mocked him
“No matter what, we are not going to participate in war against Iran. We will not give bases to the US to attack”
… which must’ve come as a complete shock to Trump …
As history rhymes …
……………but America gets very little though the Straits of Hormuz……………but Europe does.
Strange but true 😉
Meantime US armed forces have “Totally obliterated” Iranian force around the Straits of Hormuz……………just like the Ho Chi Mi trail.
🇱🇾 Oil exports from Libya’s largest oil field, Sharara, are halted after a fire broke out in the main pipeline
In combination with Iran’s war, it triggered global markets
Brent crude jumped over 5% in morning trading
You know, we watched a lot of WAR over the years & i hate it. The suffering, the waste but VERY pissers me off the most is “Not my problem” point of view from my fellow Limey. Any mention of blood split is usally answered with a blank look & “Is Liverpool (FC) playing this weekend”.
Bread & Circus & hidden borrowing to block the pain. WEll Limey motherf*ckers drink deeply from the well of nothingless because (with luck) this one WILL effect you!
Inflation/higher rates/lower house prices/expective food & fuel & lots of lovey job losses!!!
Welcome to the war!
Mike
Strong second on hating war. The loss of human life … the economic double whammy of using resources to destroy resources. It’s a very rare war whose benefits exceed such very high costs.
““…The possibility it will have been by design can’t be ruled out…”
🇨🇳🇹🇼🇺🇸 China offered Taiwan a “peaceful reunification” in exchange for LNG supplies, but the island refused & decided to buy more gas from the US — Reuters
🇮🇷🇶🇦🇸🇦🇦🇪 Iran is about to blow off all the energy facilities in the Gulf
Iran has issued evacuation orders for all energy facilities along the Gulf in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
This comes after US and Israel bombed their gas infrastructure today.
“…The possibility it will have been by design can’t be ruled out…”
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺🇨🇳 Trump administration believes that ending the war in Ukraine by improving relations with Russia could weaken China’s global influence — Politico
Bizarre … that quote begs for context … do you have a link for it?
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/17/one-reason-trump-wont-give-up-on-putin-peace-deal-china-00831776
Thanks👍
BTW if I were in Trump’s shoes I’d be on the phone with Putin playing Let’s Make a Deal!
Russia and China are both supporting the Iranian regime, and both want things America could help them out with, or at least not impede. Sanctions … tariffs … Ukraine … you would think something mutually beneficial could be worked out …
May be he already MADE A DEAL?
Indeed … it’s safe to assume that what we hear via public news media is far from the totality of intel available and plans being made behind the curtain …
OK, so China needs to source Oil/Gas….from where?
Some higher input from Russia but its not enough. Africa?…….some Far East output?….Canada?
may be AMERICA?
Mike
My understanding is that China is getting quite a bit from Iran via Hormuz. That shipping isn’t being restricted. How long that holds up though isn’t clear given that the destruction is spreading to production facilities.
No doubt some will come from America. But it’s not in the admin’s interest to sell huge amounts because that will drive up domestic prices ahead of the mid-term elections, already a sore point with voters.
Maybe it’s a good thing I’m not president, but if I were sanctions would be disappearing faster than free beer at a frat party.
One of the things not being reported(much, outside of narrow SME channels) is Iranian or Iranian-proxy drones flying without opposition over the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.
While U.S. embassies used to be welcoming architectural wonders, today they possess far more bunker-like passive as well as more active defensive capabilities, including against drones.
But the velocity of change is high, and never higher than during times of war(especially in Russia-Ukraine).
Earlier generations of drones controlled via wireless data-link are susceptible to jamming, especially those drones based on commercial off the shelf systems.
But fibre-optic cable guided drones streaming a hair-thin FO cable are much harder to jam, and it was several FO drones flying without opposition impunity over the U.S. embassy in Baghdad days ago is a bit of a game changer.
While the US and its allies may maintain air supremacy(much as they have wherever they go for the last 80+ years), the new definition of air supremacy should probably be bifurcated between above and below 300 metres.
Because below 300m is very much in question.
As to the nuclear threat, I believe that is also bifurcated.
I believe the risk of an Iranian nuclear weapon(in the Hiroshima/Nagasaki sense) being successfully built and delivered has collapsed, bar outside actor involvement such as Russia, less likely China or North Korea.
But I believe the risk of radiological weapons being used has exploded.
Seizing Maduro and slaughtering his Cuban inner cordon was a wake up call to US surgical seizure capabilities.
Despite the 2003 Iraq War invasion being an epic mistake with a WMD casus belli, there actually were seizures of radiological material.
Nearly 25 years later, capabilities are far more advanced and the ability to target Iranian leadership has been extraordinary. But it’s also likely IRGC will have dispersed radiological material widely.
In the end, I’m left with the melancholic irony that the U.S. is destroying the F14s it sold to Iran which helped the bankruptcy wolves from Grumman’s door in the 70’s.
And if Israel were to completely destroy Iran(unlikely, but non-zero possibility), using it’s nuclear armed Jericho ballistic missiles, it will be with Iranian financial DNA within them, from the quarter billion dollar R&D investment the Shah’s Iran made in Israel’s Jericho missile program in the 70’s.
It is all so repulsive.
Brent now $112 ish………….the party is just getting started
John Bolton ADMITS that by European leaders failing to support the U.S. in Iran — especially those who said “this is not our war” — it INVITES President Trump to say:
“Ukraine is not our war.”
BOLTON: “I will say I think the Europeans make a mistake by responding to that kind of juvenile behavior with juvenile behavior of their own.”
“A number of European leaders, including Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s chief foreign policy official, have said expressly, ‘Iran is not our war.’”
“That’s a very dangerous way to put it because it invites Donald Trump — it almost teases him — to come back and say, well okay, Iran is not your war, Ukraine is not our war.”
They walked right into Trump’s trap. What if Trump didn’t really care if they joined in, but if he asked and they declined, well … but of course they were going to decline … would you want to sail into that hornet’s nest?
Trump does not want any further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure following today’s events – WSJ
The Green Goblin wants a HIGH level meeting between UK & Trump to find common ground ref Ukraine war. ………….in other words the Limey bastards want a meeting!
BTW I think this is where you’re supposed say Gold getting killed!
https://financology.net/2026/03/06/13789/#comment-9184
A lot of Good people are getting killed 🙁
Gold can wait
You know this is a financial site, right?
We can’t save lives, but we might save our assets…
The price of oil could double from current levels if Iran is able to conduct sweeping strikes on Gulf facilities, a Wall Street bank has warned.
Citi said Brent crude could hit $200 a barrel if Tehran conducts “broad energy infrastructure attacks” or under a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz until June.
The note to clients came as Iran warned oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to evacuate staff ahead of attacks “in the coming hours”.
Oil prices surged by as much as 6.3pc to nearly $110 a barrel after the warning, which followed strikes by Israel on Iranian gas fields.
Citi estimated there was a 50pc chance of oil hitting as much as $120 in the coming days.
“The market is likely to rally until it finds the price or market event which drives the US to end it military operation,” analysts said.
It said the only other things that could halt price rises would be a “more forceful” release of global reserves or China pressuring Iran to do a deal.
Qatar Expels Iranian Diplomats After Strike On LNG Hub; Israel Attacks Iran’s Navy In Caspian Sea
“Israel’s escalation of the conflict – now targeting Iran’s upstream energy assets – sent Brent crude futures above the $109/bbl level, as WTI prices inched closer to triple-digit territory.”
“Brent crude futures jumped from around $103.5/bbl to $108/bbl following Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. This escalation in strikes underscores what Bloomberg commodities analyst Javier Blas said: “Both sides are now targeting upstream (i.e., production) oil and natural gas assets.””
The targeting of “upstream” assets – the facilities where oil and gas are produced – is a concerning escalation … shipping lanes can be easily reopened to traffic, but production facilities will not so easily be restored to production.
Morning Gang
Ok, Brent just hit $115 & its going higher baby!
Israel (under British control) hit the gas production to provoke China response. It failed.
Trump made it clear that it was not his doing & allowed Iran to strike Qatar (British) gas production.
I hopeful that we won’t see anymore than that.
Gold selling off but so is everything else except Hydro carbons
Mike
Oh MY !!!!!
Gas prices surged by 35pc after Iran launched strikes on the world’s biggest LNG plant.
Europe’s benchmark contact leapt to €74 per megawatt hour on Thursday, more than double its levels from before the Middle East conflict.
The price of Brent crude oil also surged more than 5pc to more than $113 a barrel overnight after Iran escalated its retaliatory attacks in the Middle East.
Donald Trump said he would “massively blow up” Iran’s strategic South Pars gas field if it attacked other nations in the Gulf again.
Qatar said that the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas export plant suffered “extensive damage” in a series of attacks last night.
Plebs getting informed:-
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-oil-prices-fuel-rationing-starmer-iran-war-b2939318.html
Gold getting dumped!
UK Stock market down 3%
Oil + Cash
Iranian missile strikes on Haifa refinery
$200 billion so far & you not even set foot in the place!
Breaking new:- F35 fighter has crash landed in Saudi after taking fire over Iran
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/19/the-attack-on-qatars-gas-citadel-has-blown-up-uk-energy-sec/
Ho Ho Ho Limey MotherF**kers, suck it up
My Cup runnth over
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/19/net-zero-has-put-britains-economic-fate-mercy-iran/
https://www.carscoops.com/2026/03/fuel-rationing-risk-australia/
Morning Gang
Nice day yesterday, got mum to take a shower & she had a walk around the park …..not bad for a 94 year old who was given the last rites 15 months ago. I know that day is coming but i am here for her as long as needed.
Now then the war?
Have we “Won” yet?
Mike
Gold/Silver NOT getting the bounce i hoped for, still UK rates climbing FAST.
Mike
Aye, Reeves seems to have her hands full. Though US bonds are feeling a bit sick too.
Certainly a frustrating situation for gold. It’s going down at a sustainable pace, which makes you not want to hold it. But the long term case is still strong, which makes you want to hold it. Yesterday morning I bought back a little of the IAU shares I sold in January and February, but calibrating the right position size is more art than science.
I think you nailed it … cash and oil. I’ll take a semi-victory lap for having called the migration of the bull market in metals to the broader commodity complex back in December (COMT up 36%+ since), but did not anticipate that so much would come in such a short period of time. That’s another source of frustration … it leaves the question of how much is left wide open.
Meanwhile we have no reliable information on the war. Trump keeps telling us the war is won, yet the Iranian regime is still shooting. Not my definition of having won.
They have closed the sea way, they have not lost.
Mike
The only thing Trump has won here is his battle with NATO. If NATO allies accede to his entreaties to help open the gulf, he wins. If they don’t, he wins. Whenever the subject of Ukraine comes up, he can say “Not our war”.
The gulf will eventually reopen. It’s not clear though whether Iran will he nuke free. Just last year we were assured it was, only to be told this year it wasn’t.
Been watching Trump still very much “Lost at sea” now wants China to help. Mean time the 82th Airborne are going to join the USMC……with no plan.
Mike
No plan that we know of…
Talk round the campfire is US Troops are going to Lebanon!
Mike
🇮🇷🇺🇸 President Trump today:
3:43 PM ET: “I don’t want to do a ceasefire with Iran.”
5:13 PM ET: The US is “considering winding down” the war with Iran.
All over the map. I think what he means here is that there’s no point in a ceasefire since the war is almost over.
But how many times have we heard that? Last year he “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. In which case there should have been no point in doing it again this year. If you have appendicitis, the doc only removes your appendix once!
Ah, Somebody needs to tell Iran.
BREAKING:
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇬🇧 Iran launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia Airbase, they were intercepted en route, according to the Wall Street Journal.
This is well beyond the range of known Iranian ballistic missiles.
This marks the first attack on Diego Garcia since the start of the war.
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 Tucker Carlson : How can Iran overcome all the losses it suffered in war?
Professor Peter Zeihan: “Iran has a master plan to generate $800B annually by charging a 10% toll on all global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. They will use this massive wealth to rebuild and rise stronger than ever”
🇮🇷🇯🇵 Iran and Japan close to agreement on Hormuz transit
Iran has begun negotiating individually with each country regarding the Strait of Hormuz and will likely charge a hefty fee.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, said in an interview to Kyodo News that Iran is preparing to escort Japanese tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran starts charging around 10% per tanker, according to some reports, the country will collect $800 billion annually.
Israel hit a nuclear site in Iran, Iran just a nuclear site in Israel!
He blinked…………………..Trump that is.
Like any bully who found his next fight too tough.
So, we get this flood of nonsense from him.
Looks like some insider trading as well.
Iranian media are saying no, there are no talks, that he’s just trying to take pressure off of oil prices and boost stocks and bonds. Which seems credible … we’ve seen this show before.
I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s best to ignore what Trump says. He’s going to say something different in ten minutes.
Also keep in mind everything he says, he knows the Iranian regime is listening too. So he has an incentive to confuse and mislead. Definitely one of those watch not what they say but what they do kind of things …
No fertilizer for crops, no Diesel for tractors
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/23/farmers-face-diesel-rationing-as-prices-soar/
Ah……………..get ready for “Clean Coal”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/24/king-coal-back-from-dead-iran-war-rocks-energy-markets/
Robo miners?
Mike
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 The NYT reports total confusion in the White House.
Trump is desperately looking for a way out of the war to save the markets.
Countries like Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are stepping in to mediate because Trump’s disastrous war is threatening the entire global economy.
Desperate messages from Iranians who say Trump’s latest decision is ‘worst thing’ that could happen
Markets are acting as if the war is all but over. That’s far from assured. The Trump admin has extended an olive branch which the Iranian regime has rebuffed. It may be more a PR move than anything else, though, for if the US regime appears to seek peace while the Iranian regime insists on war, the latter come out looking like the bad guys, making it easier for the admin to gather international support. But there are no good guys in this. Trump continues to insist the war is won, but in so doing is only hurting its own credibility. As long as the Iranians can bomb their neighbors, claims that their military has been destroyed ring hollow.
There continue to be more US forces heading to the theater, and investors should be prepared for the possibility they will be used. As with the possibility they may not … fog of war …
Mega’s dispatch from England:- Phoney war 2.0
Greetings from dear old Blighty where very little has changed as yet from the normal. The war seems very far away. True some of the more farsighted have begun to smell the wind but so far the “sheep” are still grazing the grass.
WE hearing odd little hints here & there, but we are in the “WEST”, we don’t get shortages……that sh1t happens elsewhere. Indeed great play is made every time a tanker gets though TSOH or that “Britain gets 75% of its Gas from the North sea”.
75% comes from the North Sea via NORWAY. As i understand it we pay spot prices & we DO NOT have a contract for sole use eg we have to bid for Gas. Also Blighty is no longer a member of the EEC & i suspect EEC nations will get 1st call on that gas!
Meantime in 8 months time Russian Gas contracts expire to Europe. Nice timing. With Europe being unable to fill its storage for next winter its looking bleak.
Glad to see Gold catching a bid once again but i cant fathom why Oil is so cheap?
Mike
You’re in good company on the question of why isn’t oil as cheap as it is. I’ve seen commentary from both industry execs and financial analysts suggesting it should be higher given the loss of so much supply.
I don’t presume to have all the answers but can offer a couple observations. Oil was in a glut situation only a few months ago. There’s still a lot of it at sea, waiting to get to market. Also the Fed’s “last war” reaction function has it poised to tighten on oil price increases. leading to a strong dollar. The same strong dollar that’s been weighing on gold prices also weighs on all other dollar denominated prices, including oil.
But these are transient issues. Loss of upstream production will continue to pressure prices to the upside even after supply lines reopen. So you might say that compared to what they otherwise would be, we’re getting lower oil prices today at the expense of higher prices tomorrow.
It’s like the sun exploding: One Wall Street firm fears $200 oil — and says it’s not too late for investors to prepare
Incoming?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/25/how-the-energy-crisis-could-cripple-britain/
I think that its time for the RNC to er……have a little chat with J D Vance. Like Ford he might very well some what unexpectedly a Prez. I wonder if Bibi has dirt on him?…….if not than he would be able to throw Bibi & the Green goblin under the bus.
Trump wants $2 billion a day to reopen TSOH, Senators now openly asking if it was open before what was the point of the war?
Political amnesia?
To stop IRGC from getting nukes.
Meantime
https://www.intellinews.com/samsung-develops-a-solid-state-silver-carbon-battery-breakthrough-428147/
I’m an economics guy, not a geopolitics or military expert, and peering through the fog of war on top of that. Also working only with publicly available information, subject to media biases, and not with restricted information available to leadership. But given that big geopolitics and military issues are impacting the economy, here are some impressions of the situation nevertheless.
The attack on Iran was ill advised and underprepared for. Trump’s advisors undoubtedly warned of the prospect for and consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and more generally of the entire Gulf region, but egged on by Israel, and perhaps emboldened by the spectacular success of the preceding Venezuela operation, Trump chose to take the risk.
Iran has had 47 years to prepare for such an event, and the administration hasn’t. It may have also underestimated the support from Russia and China, which the administration, as well as past ones, has also erred in making enemies of, not least after having wasted a slug of arms in Ukraine. So it’s not just Iran it’s taken on. Not actually Iran per se – America has no quarrel with Iran – but rather with the regime, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolution’s military. That Trump keeps insisting it has militarily won the war, while the missiles and bombs keep flying, is an indication of this underestimation.
That the US wasn’t fully prepared is evidenced by the late calling for troops to the area. This gives the regime yet more time to prepare, which increases the risks of an already risky venture. The controversy over ground troops also helps undermine its odds, because it appears to have yielded an unfortunate compromise between a full scale deployment and no deployment, resulting in a small force of only a few thousand. Unfortunate because it’s a binary, all or nothing proposition. I am concerned that this small deployment will result in more bloodshed than a larger one would have.
Trump of course still has the option of making a deal. But he’s forfeited most of his cards. Any deal that results in the regime remaining free to build nuclear weapons or in control of the Strait of Hormuz is a loss. A win would allow for neither. And it would be a loss of no small consequence, either, because any future in which the regime could hold the world hostage to either a nuclear threat or a severe economic threat would be a dark future indeed.
So the Trump administration may have backed itself into a corner where it has two choices. Escalate, or leave the Iranian regime to rule the world. Ugly and uglier.
Again, I am no geopolitician, but I have been saying for years America should do better to get along with Russia and China. It squandered decades of opportunity with Russia maintaining a cold war mindset long after the cold war was over, and years with China blaming it for taking advantage of its own poor economic policies. Given their influence, other trouble spots like North Korea and Iran would be much less trouble. To oversimplify it, America and Israel versus Iran, Russia and China is a tough nut to crack. But America, Israel, Russia and China versus Iran would be a cakewalk in comparison.
It might be or it might not be too late, but if I were in Trump’s shoes I would be spending a whole lot of time talking to Russia and China about what they want and what America could do to help them get it.
Barring that particular long shot, the financial and economic implications aren’t pretty. It’s a net negative on both fronts for an economy and financial system already beset with stultifying debt, overvalued stocks, and an incompetent if not malevolent central bank.
Brent $103……………….looks like the world is waking up to the fact that Iran has NOT folded.
By this weekend if Iran is still in the fight (Very likely) than i see a major moves in the markets.
Mike
Bloomberg: Trump announces he extends the pause in Iran energy strikes to 8PM EDT April 6, on request from the “Iranian government”.
“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that l am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank
you for your attention to this matter!
President DONALD J. TRUMP”
There needs to be a new rule that requires such announcements to be made during market hours. Or better yet, just STFU.
🇮🇱🇮🇷 The IDF is nearing a BREAKING POINT – Channel 12
In a leaked cabinet recording, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned that the IDF is nearing a breaking point after prolonged conflict.
“I am raising ten red flags,” Zamir told ministers, stressing the urgent need for new laws on conscription, reserves, and extended service.
“The reserves will not be able to hold out under these dramatic circumstances,” he added, warning that “it won’t be long before the IDF is no longer fit for even routine security missions.”
Brent now $105, the Germans said that a meeting was taking place in Pakistan between US & Iran. They then could not give any details……………….my thoughts are they trying to play the markets as well.
The French had the gaul to try to tap Russia for Gas/Diese/lOil & quite rightly got told to F*k off.
Nothing stops this train!
“The French had the gaul …”
Excellent.
What a mess. It’s hard to explain why stocks aren’t responding more negatively … except there are too many people thinking that any minute some announcement might be made that’s going to send them soaring higher and they don’t want to miss it. Hope as a strategy … a setup for disappointment.
Where’s the good outcome here? From the western POV the obvious alternatives are all bad. Escalate and sacrifice lives. Or fold and leave the Iranian regime in a position to hold the world hostage to threats of being able to tank the world economy or inflict nuclear strikes. The Trump admin didn’t think this through.
The Iranian regime is making mistakes too. It’s putting itself in the position of having to be exterminated or presenting an unacceptable outcome to the rest of the world. Besides attacking its neighbors it reportedly turned away two Chinese ships this morning.
Escalation On All Fronts …
“In a rare twist, The Wall Street Journal and others report Iran has even blocked two Chinese vessels from transiting Hormuz – signaling enforcement isn’t just for Western targets.”
Divide and conquer or unite and be conquered.
Gold just took off, but Oil still high……………….hmmmm
The USD may be being dethroned. It’s been benefitting from the perception the Fed will tighten in response to higher oil prices. But any such hawkishness would be transient, as war costs a lot of money and the Treasury is broke. At some point the short term expectations for tightening yield to longer term expectations of easing. Gold has been hammered and is starting to look like a good value again.
The spread between WTI & Brent is closing…
Pentagon sez they taken out 3rd of Iran’s missile stocks………..i think a lot less
WTI now only a few $ short of Brent!
Its been 4 weeks & i think the effects will come home shortly.
I think Diesel will be 1st……..then Petrol then NG………………..
Putin must be singing in his bath.
Mike
WTIC $101.18 at the weekly NY close. It’s been selling at $130-$170 in Dubai, though, so probably more to go…
Macquarie: Two More Months Of War Could Send Oil To $200
Mega’s dispatch from England:-The worm turns
While i hate war, with its cruel pain & suffering there is something that does lift my soul. I love it when a bully gets taken to the woodshed. All my adult life i watched Iran getting sh1t on. 1st with the US/UK coup that put the Shar in power & kept there with his secret police.
Then after the people had the affront to rise up the West set Sadam on them. Every low down dirty trick has been played on them, but they didn’t give up. They are now bravely fighting back.
This was not unexpected, however the level of strength was. In short Iran IS giving as good as they got. These people are not bending, however others are.
We had the French ask the Russians for hydro carbons ……while they make war on them. I also noticed that Israel is NOT getting the free ride they used to in the British press. Both Sky & the BBC went with a tale of a Palestine toddler released from detention with signs of abuse/torture.
True or not is not the point. The point is that it was almost top story. The press IS turning on Israel.
Then there is CPAC perhaps the biggest surprise of the week. The lead on stage asked (as a joke i assume) “Do you want to see Trump impeached?” To his shock the answer came back as YES!………….he asked again & got the same response.
While Trump carries on with his blaver talk J D Vance needs to do some hard thinking. Would he like to be Prez? He can’t strike yet but wait until the mid terms when Trump losses BOTH houses. Then with at lest 65% of the votes with him he strikes.
Yes he be a lame duck Prez with little chance of winning the office, but he would have been Prez…………a safe pair of hands with no Epstein ties hopefully.
Mike
Unless things are going much better for the Trump admin by then, Vance probably isn’t the strongest candidate to succeed him, if only because of his close association with Trump. Trump has lost the plot as far as his original America First electoral platform goes. While there are serious problems right here at home (government too big, debt too deep, Social Security, Medicare, Obamacare, the tax code, etc all far too complex and inefficient), Trump has tried to be president of the world instead.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis would have a better shot; he not only says the right things but has a track record to back them up.
The European Union Hates Hungary, Loves Ukraine
Ukraine has bleed the EEC or weapons & money.
Russian gas contract ends in Jan 2027…………just when the EEC needed to build up its stocks……the Middle East is off line for at lest a year.
Mike
Like America, Europe needs to find a way to get along better with Russia.
Iran’s Hormuz toll booth points toward an L-shaped price plateau, not the V-shaped recovery traders want
As i write this a KC135 is in the process of crash landing in Israel
Monday Morning Gang
Ok Brent hit $115, Trump has a “Plan” but won’t say wot its is. Pete H seems to have disappeared Iran now on wave 86 of missle strikes, Libya now joining in……….oh joy
Mike
⚡️BREAKING
Trump is now considering ending the war, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control – WSJ
All well and good; opening Hormuz wasn’t an objective of the action in the first place (how could it have been, it was already open).
But what about nuclear weapons? That was the original main objective.
The BIG the MEGA BIG question is this:-
If Trump is willing to back off Iran will he also depart the bases in the middle east?
Mike
Trump on at 9pm tonight…………….can’t wait
A lot of A10 attack planes are on route, seems like troops are going in.
Mike
OK, 9 pm EST is 2am UK time……………no way i can stay up for that.
I have to wait till morning ………….expect a MDFE soome after.
Mike
I may actually tune in. Long-winded braggadocio isn’t my cup of tea, but I’m curious as to how Trump might reconcile all the contradictory statements he’s been making.
One thing to keep firmly in mind is that Trump knows full well that everything he says to the public is also being said to the Iranian regime. So he has an incentive to confuse and mislead. We are collateral damage. He went into this ill-prepared, but can’t possibly believe everything he says himself.
Just one recent example: US exit isn’t conditioned on reopening Hormuz; it will be other countries’ problem. But if Hormuz isn’t opened straitaway, he will bomb them into the “Stone Age”.
Pick one.
Not that the other side is a model of consistency and clarity. Peering through the fog of war, there may be some daylight between Iran’s hard right clerics and its civilian government. The loudest saber-rattling comes from the IRGC while expressions of interest in ending the war emanate from Iran’s president.
We have good friday bank holiday coming up………….just saying.
Mike
God almighty
Who the bigger Loon Trump or me…………its 2;30 am here in Blighty & i awoke to hear him.
Nutter…………….Oh & Oz is about out of fuel.
A load of Blfer & waffle……………he had nothing new to say.
No sense of direction …………am going back to sleep
Nothing struck me as new either. Mostly a matter of emphasis. A little more focus on the nuclear rationale. Says he wants to be out in a couple weeks, while repeating that he will hit hard until then. Nothing worse but nothing reassuring.
Markets apparently reacting as if it were new though, maybe focusing on the hitting hard part. Dollar up, oil up, S&P futures down, gold down. While the temptation to associate market movements with news events is often wrong, the timing makes this one inescapable. We’ll see if it sticks.
Gold getting Killed, oil climbing fast……………..
off to bed
Cheers
Mike
Disappointing. It’s not clear how hitting Iran “very hard” for another couple weeks furthers the goal of preventing it from obtaining nukes. After a month of hitting hard, maybe the all stick and no carrot approach needs a rethink.
Before the speech an analyst had remarked that it was intended to provide some reassurance of progress towards peace, but was doubtful whether it would succeed over Trump’s confrontational nature or his tendency to speak off the cuff. Reassurance? If the markets are any indication, that’s not what they heard.
Let’s hope that another Trump tendency, to reverse himself, prevails and a more moderate message emerges tomorrow.
We are still at the “Linebacker 2” stage, no “Peace with Honor” as yet.
Mike
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted an “open letter to the American people” on X yesterday.
https://x.com/drpezeshkian/status/2039418009052119190
ZeroHedge reproduces the entire letter here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uae-poised-join-anti-iran-operations-trump-rips-nato-paper-tiger-says-exit-
I’m sure this is a best foot forward message, but it doesn’t sound like someone who can’t be talked to or reasoned with. Nuclear proliferation is a serious problem, but it just seems like there must be ways short of bombing an entire country “back to the stone age” to address it.
Meantime back in Blighty:-
Biggest shock to mortgage market since Truss mini-budget
The Iran war has triggered the sharpest shock to the UK mortgage market since the 2022 mini-budget delivered by Liz Truss, analysis by Moneyfacts has revealed.
Mortgage rates have soared in recent weeks, with the average two-year fixed deal jumping 100 basis points (bps) from 4.84% to 5.84% in March.
Typical five-year fixes have jumped from 4.96% to 5.75%.
Rates have not risen this sharply since autumn 2022
I see ge just sacked Pam B……………by the mid terms he is finished.
Mike
The Reps are going to have a rough mid term cycle, even with no help from Blondi.
BREAKING: Dated Brent crude oil prices have surged to $141/barrel, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump has threatened to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine unless Europe joins in reopening the Strait of Hormuz — FT
INTERESTING
Enough with the drama. Either do it or don’t.
Sorry but I want to vent a bit. Trump talks too much and says too little. He already asked for Hormuz help and got an answer. Then said he doesn’t want help. Then says it will reopen itself. Talk about leaving NATO. Don’t. Just do it. Talk about ending the war in Ukraine, or at least getting US out of it. Just do it. Talk about ending the war in Iran, or at least getting US out of it. Just do it.
Whatever happened with the Trump reboot of the Monroe Doctrine? If you’re going to get involved in other countries’ business, at least stick to your own neighborhood. Might have actually done some good in Cuba. Better yet, how about America First?
Mega’s dispatch from England:-Good Friday/Good Grief
Greetings all
I spent the last few days awaiting for a lull in Trump to allow me the sum up wots going on, trouble is he been non stop. The latest is he decided on “Regime chance” somewhat closer to home.
In deed Trumps night of the long knifes are only just getting started. Am reminded of the old Ferrari story, if the car does not handle change the set up, if it still does not handle change the driver!
The wise old heads at the Pentagon have no wish to find themselves in the same position as General Westmoreland, taking the blame for LBJ & Robert Mac fk up. However you can be sure some dumbf**k will be found.
To say this is a gift to the DNC is unstate it some what, its a roll over lotto jackpot!
In the run up to the mid terms ALL they have to do is point the bills/job losses/costs/taxes, not to mention the dead body bages coming home.
Then given the US armed forces are not practiced in modern combined arms action a swift victory is most unlikely. The DNC will have “D” weapon………….DRAFT. Oh the joy that must be flooding though DNC HQ right now.
In the run up to the mid terms when the public are feeling the pain, just start leaking “D” stories everywhere. Yes, little Joe or Jane will be given a “Free” trip (paid by your taxes) to fight in an unwinnable war. Does not matter if true or not the people WILL believe it & VOTE accordingly.
Both Houses, then they come for him.
Cheers
Mike
Likely the next BIG sell in UK car markets
https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-reviews/renault/2026-twingo-e-tech/
P.L.E.B car
🇮🇷 Bad day for the USAF
Today’s reported incidents:
🔸F-15E (48th Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO still missing.
🔸A-10C Thunderbolt II — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot reportedly recovered.
🔸HH-60G Pave Hawk — Hit during CSAR mission and crash-landed across the border in Iraq. Crew reportedly rescued.
Other incidents:
🔸KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 10:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
🔸F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border around 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar.
🔸KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 19:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
“WE GOT HIM!”: Trump Says As 2nd Downed Pilot Recovered In High Risk Iran Special Forces Raid After ‘Dicey’ Firefight
US Special Forces Recover 2nd Downed Pilot
“We have now witnessed an initial ‘boots on the ground’ moment as a high risk US special forces raid and aerial operation has recovered the second crew member from the downed F-15E jet, which was shot down in Iran on Saturday. US officials have confirmed that the downed pilot from the F-15E jet has been “recovered” in Iran following a “heavy firefight” – according to Al Jazeera, Axios, and others.
Per Axios: “The shootdown was a nightmare scenario for the U.S. military, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also racing to locate the missing U.S. officer in southwest Iran over the past 36 hours. Both crew members were rescued in special forces operations inside Iran.”
The report continues, “One of the U.S. officials said Saturday’s operation was conducted by a specialized commando unit with a high volume of air cover, that the U.S. forces unleashed a hail of heavy fire, and that all of the forces were now out of Iran.””
War in Iran shows no signs of slowing down, and its damage may be felt for years to come
“Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have signaled potential willingness to negotiate terms to end the conflict. But parliamentary speaker and former IRGC general Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as the driving public voice, contradicting statements from Pezeshkian and denying that Iran is engaged in any kind of talks with the US or Israel.”
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱Iran has submitted its response to Pakistan regarding the U.S. 45-day ceasefire proposal – IRNA
Iran rejects a temporary ceasefire and demands the following:
– A permanent end to the war on all theatres in the Middle East, including Lebanon and Gaza, with guarantees.
– The dismantling of all U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.
– Implementation of a new transit protocol that recognizes Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and allows Iran to collect tolls.
– The lifting of economic sanctions on Iran.
– Acknowledging Iran’s right to peaceful uranium enrichment per its inherent right under the NPT and the United Nations charter.
– The paying of reparations for economic damages suffered during the war.
The parties and the media keep referring to “Iran” as if it were a monolithic entity. But that’s a gross oversimplification, isn’t it? Iran is 636,372 square miles and 92,417,681 people.
When they say things like “Iran” did this or we’re going to do that to “Iran”, exactly who or what are they talking about? The Ayatollah and the mullahs, the IRGC, the civilian government … who?
It makes a difference. When Trump talks about bombing “Iran” back into the “Stone Age”, doesn’t that sweep in an awful lot of innocent people? When they say “Iran” demands this or that, who exactly is doing the demanding? The civilian government, the IRGC, the Ayatollah … is it even remotely accurate to pretend they’re all one and the same?
The ideal would be to get the hardware not the people. The original goal of preventing the IRGC from getting nuclear weapons is reasonable, but the scope of collateral damage is absurd. The loss of focus is tragic. Poor rhetoric goes hand in hand with poor thinking and it can have really poor consequences.
It also appears Trump fails to understand his enemies. Dying for their cause is their ticket to paradise. Escalating threats of death and destruction don’t work. However valid his intents his instincts are faulty. All stick and no carrot is a failing strategy.
His latest threats are a lose-lose proposition. Don’t follow through and you lose your credibility. Follow through and you lose your humanity.
OK, as far as i can see:-
Trump wanted OUT, decried on a raid to steal Iran’s nuclear stockpile. The mission went to sh1t!
The Commander who was sat in the back seat of the F15 got his ass blown out of the air. Then the “Mission” was to find him!
The C130’s came in to land on that strip, but it had been raining & they sank into the ground….Oh BUGGER. They were lucky to get out with losses.
Trump is pissed!
The Off ramp that this op would have given him is blown…….now he up against his own deadline!
Pure DR Strangelove stuff
Pure speculation:
Trump Threatens To ‘Take Out Entire Country Of Iran’ Tomorrow Night, Demands ‘Free Traffic Of Oil’ In Hormuz
WTIC hits war high over $115:
The Energy Tax
I note that Jimmy Dimond of JPM sez that VERY high interest rates are INCOMING & no one factor that in as yet…………..
Trump sez he going to do it Iran sez it will fight back……………WTI @$118 …………..oh my
Financology Commenting Guidelines
We have a cease fire.
Hormuz is open.
A two week reprieve. I’m no geopolitical guru … maybe it’s part wishful thinking … but I believe the worst is over. It’s in the best interests of all sides to reach a lasting settlement so the incentives are there.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/75-gulf-energy-assets-damaged-us-iran-war-supply-shock-intensifies
“TEHRAN-7 APRIL 2026
On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region. In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi Minister of Foreign Affairs
Islamic Republic of Iran”