With the west Asian war having drawn to an at least temporary conclusion, all sides are declaring victory. If indeed the ceasefire holds, they will all be justified in so doing. If not, none will.
One can imagine benign explanations. I thought some kind of deal was in the works myself, not only because it was “TACO Tuesday” but also because Trump’s threat was so incredibly apocalyptic, that to dare to follow through would have been unthinkable. But I wasn’t so sure that I would have bet the farm on it. Somebody either had brass balls or inside information.
So the cease fire is cracking due to continued attacks on Lebanon. Vance says Lebanon was never included in the cease fire agreement. But why get bogged down in he-said-she-said? You’re still handing the Iranians an excuse to keep firing and keep a tight grip on Hormuz. If this stuff is important – and it sure is – you don’t let technicalities get in the way. Let cease fire mean cease fire.
NATO? Less talk, more action. Just exit. Exactly what purpose does it serve? Does anyone really believe that without a formal document, that the US would not come to the aid of England, France, Germany, Italy, Poland … ? It didn’t need it in WWII. And it didn’t need it in Ukraine, despite the fact that Ukraine was NOT a member of NATO. To the contrary, ambitions to expand NATO into Ukraine arguably provoked the war.
And it’s not as if that’s unconnected with the front in Iran. Russia has influence with Iran. Better relations with Russia might even have helped prevent this war. And then there’s North Korea … is it possible enmity with Russia isn’t much more than old habit and entrenched interests, and that treating it as an enemy is at least partly self-fulfilling?
North Sea oil prices have surged to a record high as Donald Trump accused Iran of breaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The price of cargoes of oil produced off the coast of the UK surged to nearly $147 per barrel as traders rushed to secure supplies.
Forties Blend, which is used as a benchmark for North Sea oil immediately ready for delivery, climbed above highs last seen on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis.
North Sea oil has more than doubled in price from around $60 a barrel at the start of the year. It has far outstripped the price of Brent crude, which traded at about $97 on Friday morning.
NATO is the worlds most effective military, it is essentially impossible to defeat. And we run it, literally commanding the troops of the other members. Unless we are proposing eliminating our armed forces, logic tells us this arrangement is the best military we can have. No ad-hoc or last-minute alliance is comparable, because the armies train together constantly with compatible hardware, tactics and policies. The US ability to project power globally requires the dozens and dozens of bases our NATO partners let us use. Leaving NATO throws away the trillions of dollars we have spent building it.
Half-term flights risk being cancelled as Europe’s airports face running out of jet fuel within weeks.
Airports on the Continent have told the EU that their kerosene stocks will run dry within three weeks unless supplies from the Middle East increase dramatically.
Shortages risk leading to flight cancellations and price rises for passengers at one of the busiest times of year for air travel. Millions of Britons fly to Europe each year, with Spain, France and Italy the top three destinations.
Markets appear to agree, giving a thumbs up to this latest turn in strategy. Oil prices are indeed higher, but stocks are only down a bit, US stocks actually up a bit. Gold is down markedly while US Treasuries are down slightly and the USD is higher versus other currencies. COMT is up sharply. Remarkable considering the collapse of peace talks.
My conjecture is that the positive response is due to the more benign cost benefit proposition of emphasizing economic pressure over loss of life and vital infrastructure, neutralizing Iran’s chokehold on the global economy, with renewed focus on the core objective of preventing nuclear war.
Trump now sez He bigger than the Pope.
I see we lost 20% of production, US might be able to make up to 5% thus we down 15%. Now given time new production can be brought online thus in 3-5 years we be back……….may be.
Please correct me if am wrong but:-
Middle East producers in the 70s cut production in response to War with Israel.
They then enjoyed a lovely price rise though the mid to late 70s.
Other oil production was found
Prices collapsed in the early 80s taking inflation with it.
Aye, even in the worst case scenario of Iran mantaining a tight grip on Hormuz, workarounds would eventually emerge. More pipelines like trans-Saudi. Venezuela production will gradually come on line. Removing sanctions on Russia could free up a lot of oil and gas.
As expected its Diesel, that’s hit the buffers 1st. I must say i am surprised to see its Oz that won this race. I had had very high hopes for dear old blighty on this one, may be we can do better on Jet fuel 😉
Oz government has modelled the crisis & they got 6 months before rationing is required IF their imports fall by 20%. Well Sport i think its likely to fall a hell of a lot more than that.
Meantime back in dear old blighty the government is having “Fun” with Russia. It seem the PM “Floated” the ideal of boarding Russian flagged ships & stealing their cargo. This brainwave was sunk when Russian submarines started making a lot of noise over Britain’s pipeline & undersea cables.
The government GOT the message.
The economy is slowing rapidly now, as i said before they had almost zero growth for the last year……….now they have zero growth just before this Oil war kicked off.
General Winter:-So often in the past Russia winter has come to her aid……….& so it is once more. Russia Gas contracts end in 2027, the gas exporting plants built by the British in the middle east are a smoking creator & they will not be able to stock up before winter………
Mega’s Dispatch from England:- Beyond the Thunderdome?/2
Update, it seems the IMF has DOWNGRADED dear old blighty, we are to be WORSE effective by the Iran Oil war………….growth 0.7% down from 1.3%……….l think it be less
My Cup runth over.
I see a swiss bank is saying GOLD $6,000 this year………..fingers crossed
Eff the IMF. As if we would never have guessed higher oil prices would stress an economy. Plus most of what government and financial institutions refer to as growth is really just inflation. Growth in consumer prices lol.
Less energy though is a real cutback. And though not equally, all economies will be affected. Main thing far as the financial system goes is there is no policy remedy. Central banks can only control the supply of currency, not natural resources. The only thing governments can do is stop the supply cuts at the source.
Prices-wise, war is a double whammy. First you get real price increases due to less supply, and second you get more price increases due to the spending being financed with easy money.
🇪🇺 Europe has only six weeks left of jet fuel left
International Energy Agency chief says that Europe has ‘maybe six weeks’ of jet fuel left, says current shock is ‘the largest energy crisis we have ever faced’, according to AP report.
With the west Asian war having drawn to an at least temporary conclusion, all sides are declaring victory. If indeed the ceasefire holds, they will all be justified in so doing. If not, none will.
If you squint your eyes it looks a lot like market manipulation for massive insider trading for oil futures and stocks.
On an epic scale!
Where there’s smoke …
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump’s announcement
… there’s ceasefire?
Trader Makes $23 Million In One Day With Massive S&P Call Purchase Hours Before Ceasefire
One can imagine benign explanations. I thought some kind of deal was in the works myself, not only because it was “TACO Tuesday” but also because Trump’s threat was so incredibly apocalyptic, that to dare to follow through would have been unthinkable. But I wasn’t so sure that I would have bet the farm on it. Somebody either had brass balls or inside information.
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
… and there’s a whole lotta quacking’ goin’ on!
So the cease fire is cracking due to continued attacks on Lebanon. Vance says Lebanon was never included in the cease fire agreement. But why get bogged down in he-said-she-said? You’re still handing the Iranians an excuse to keep firing and keep a tight grip on Hormuz. If this stuff is important – and it sure is – you don’t let technicalities get in the way. Let cease fire mean cease fire.
NATO? Less talk, more action. Just exit. Exactly what purpose does it serve? Does anyone really believe that without a formal document, that the US would not come to the aid of England, France, Germany, Italy, Poland … ? It didn’t need it in WWII. And it didn’t need it in Ukraine, despite the fact that Ukraine was NOT a member of NATO. To the contrary, ambitions to expand NATO into Ukraine arguably provoked the war.
And it’s not as if that’s unconnected with the front in Iran. Russia has influence with Iran. Better relations with Russia might even have helped prevent this war. And then there’s North Korea … is it possible enmity with Russia isn’t much more than old habit and entrenched interests, and that treating it as an enemy is at least partly self-fulfilling?
North Sea oil prices have surged to a record high as Donald Trump accused Iran of breaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The price of cargoes of oil produced off the coast of the UK surged to nearly $147 per barrel as traders rushed to secure supplies.
Forties Blend, which is used as a benchmark for North Sea oil immediately ready for delivery, climbed above highs last seen on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis.
North Sea oil has more than doubled in price from around $60 a barrel at the start of the year. It has far outstripped the price of Brent crude, which traded at about $97 on Friday morning.
NATO is the worlds most effective military, it is essentially impossible to defeat. And we run it, literally commanding the troops of the other members. Unless we are proposing eliminating our armed forces, logic tells us this arrangement is the best military we can have. No ad-hoc or last-minute alliance is comparable, because the armies train together constantly with compatible hardware, tactics and policies. The US ability to project power globally requires the dozens and dozens of bases our NATO partners let us use. Leaving NATO throws away the trillions of dollars we have spent building it.
Half-term flights risk being cancelled as Europe’s airports face running out of jet fuel within weeks.
Airports on the Continent have told the EU that their kerosene stocks will run dry within three weeks unless supplies from the Middle East increase dramatically.
Shortages risk leading to flight cancellations and price rises for passengers at one of the busiest times of year for air travel. Millions of Britons fly to Europe each year, with Spain, France and Italy the top three destinations.
Thanks for sharing this useful information.
Thank you for yours too.
Oil prices surge on Trump’s blockade vow, failed US.-Iran talks
Iran will ‘implode’ with blockade – Brooks
Brilliant. It beats civilizational erasure, though will likely boost oil prices even more than Hormuz closure alone.
Markets appear to agree, giving a thumbs up to this latest turn in strategy. Oil prices are indeed higher, but stocks are only down a bit, US stocks actually up a bit. Gold is down markedly while US Treasuries are down slightly and the USD is higher versus other currencies. COMT is up sharply. Remarkable considering the collapse of peace talks.
My conjecture is that the positive response is due to the more benign cost benefit proposition of emphasizing economic pressure over loss of life and vital infrastructure, neutralizing Iran’s chokehold on the global economy, with renewed focus on the core objective of preventing nuclear war.
it took 70 years for the USSR to fall……………….
Trump now sez He bigger than the Pope.
I see we lost 20% of production, US might be able to make up to 5% thus we down 15%. Now given time new production can be brought online thus in 3-5 years we be back……….may be.
Please correct me if am wrong but:-
Middle East producers in the 70s cut production in response to War with Israel.
They then enjoyed a lovely price rise though the mid to late 70s.
Other oil production was found
Prices collapsed in the early 80s taking inflation with it.
Thus Gold stopped climbing
WE NEED to THINK about this.
Mike
Aye, even in the worst case scenario of Iran mantaining a tight grip on Hormuz, workarounds would eventually emerge. More pipelines like trans-Saudi. Venezuela production will gradually come on line. Removing sanctions on Russia could free up a lot of oil and gas.
Financology Commenting Guidelines
Mega’s Dispatch from England:- Beyond the Thunderdome?
G,Day Sports seems things are getting VERY Mad Max down under right now.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/14/australias-diesel-guzzling-economy-suffers-fuel-pumps-dry/
As expected its Diesel, that’s hit the buffers 1st. I must say i am surprised to see its Oz that won this race. I had had very high hopes for dear old blighty on this one, may be we can do better on Jet fuel 😉
Oz government has modelled the crisis & they got 6 months before rationing is required IF their imports fall by 20%. Well Sport i think its likely to fall a hell of a lot more than that.
Meantime back in dear old blighty the government is having “Fun” with Russia. It seem the PM “Floated” the ideal of boarding Russian flagged ships & stealing their cargo. This brainwave was sunk when Russian submarines started making a lot of noise over Britain’s pipeline & undersea cables.
The government GOT the message.
The economy is slowing rapidly now, as i said before they had almost zero growth for the last year……….now they have zero growth just before this Oil war kicked off.
General Winter:-So often in the past Russia winter has come to her aid……….& so it is once more. Russia Gas contracts end in 2027, the gas exporting plants built by the British in the middle east are a smoking creator & they will not be able to stock up before winter………
Oh Dear.
Mike
Mega’s Dispatch from England:- Beyond the Thunderdome?/2
Update, it seems the IMF has DOWNGRADED dear old blighty, we are to be WORSE effective by the Iran Oil war………….growth 0.7% down from 1.3%……….l think it be less
My Cup runth over.
I see a swiss bank is saying GOLD $6,000 this year………..fingers crossed
Eff the IMF. As if we would never have guessed higher oil prices would stress an economy. Plus most of what government and financial institutions refer to as growth is really just inflation. Growth in consumer prices lol.
Less energy though is a real cutback. And though not equally, all economies will be affected. Main thing far as the financial system goes is there is no policy remedy. Central banks can only control the supply of currency, not natural resources. The only thing governments can do is stop the supply cuts at the source.
Prices-wise, war is a double whammy. First you get real price increases due to less supply, and second you get more price increases due to the spending being financed with easy money.
🇪🇺 Europe has only six weeks left of jet fuel left
International Energy Agency chief says that Europe has ‘maybe six weeks’ of jet fuel left, says current shock is ‘the largest energy crisis we have ever faced’, according to AP report.