Some thoughts on the financial implications of the coronavirus plague.
Category: Uncategorized
Bad Breadth
Observations of narrowing stock leadership may already be obsolete.
Treasury Bond Prices Approach Record Levels
Will last year’s record bond prices be broken?
It’s Not Coronavirus
Beware pat answers from the financial news media.
Commodities & NonUS Stocks
More about navigating the 2020s.
Are Bonds Even More Overvalued Than Stocks?
More about navigating the 2020s.
Okay, So What Do I Do Now?
More about navigating the 2020s.
Outlook for the 2020s
Handicapping the financial markets for the decade.
Major Trend Review
A review of current major market trends and outlook for the 2020s.
Treasury Market Turns Upside Down
The yield curve inverts from end to end.
Tariffs and Comparative Advantage
Has the free trade paradigm overlooked something?
If I Were Fed Chairman
Towards A New Monetary Paradigm
Why Dividends?
Why do most stocks pay dividends, and why do investors want them?
Yield Curve Slumps
Dark omens from the bond market.
Stock Bear, Bond Bull, Continue
Long term trends remain stable as short term trends gyrate.
The Fed and the Stock Market
The Fed is once again sowing the seeds of crisis.
Is the Santa Claus Rally Over?
The stock market rally that began on Christmas looks endangered.
Buy 2019 Stocks at 2011 Prices
Buy stocks in 2019 at 2011 prices? It’s possible!
Brexit
Britain depends on Brexit for its survival as a nation.
Outlook 2019
The Financology markets outlook for 2019 and beyond.
Is the Fed Ignoring the Markets?
Financial punditry has been crying that the Fed is ignoring the markets. Financology disagrees.
Volatile Or Just Plain Down?
Volatility during this selloff has been uncharacteristically low.
The Fed Moves
Powell stands up to pressure.
A Fed Policy Mistake?
I don’t like tutti frutti ice cream. Tutti frutti ice cream is therefore a mistake.
How Will the December 2019 FOMC Decision Impact Markets?
This month’s FOMC meeting will be the most closely watched in a long time.
The Crash of 2018 Gets a Second Wind
An update on the bear market in stocks.
A Bull Market Is Born
There’s always a bull market somewhere!
Why Can’t the Economy Handle Normal Interest Rates?
The lower interest rates go and the longer they are there, the more the addict needs them.
Santa Claus Speaks
Fed Chairman Jay Powell delivers stocks a hearty ho-ho-ho.
Deflation
What causes deflation? Can inflation targeting prevent it?
Clarida vs Powell
So … are rates a long way from neutral or nearly there?
The Magic of Trade
Trade is one of the few free lunches in economics.
How to Handle Market Forecasts
There are some premises about the future of the markets underlying every portfolio.
Stock Market Sentiment Supports a “Santa Claus” Rally
Sentiment is so glum the bear leaves room for a countertrend rally.
Unreal Yields
The “real” yield you read of is probably fake.
The Social Security Demographic Crisis
Is the demographic crisis real? Or is it a figment of our rhetoric?
Deflation Accelerates
The crash in oil prices is just the latest symptom of gathering deflation.
A Whiff of Deflation
The US dollar has been appreciating since January … in real terms.
Is High Employment Inflationary?
Continued from Inflation is Not an Economic Condition.
Inflation is Not an Economic Condition
Inflation – or its mirror image, deflation – has nothing to do with demographics, technology, economic growth or any of the other usual suspects.