Deja Vu

Back on May 12 we identified a nascent bounce in stocks. The market may be  launching a repeat. Short term traders might profitably buy, but that would equally well depend on astutely timing the exit point; risky business both ways. I’m not playing. Longer term investors who may have already been looking to reduce exposure might find a good opportunity in the days immediately ahead. This rally could extend for a few days to a few weeks. But it’s very unlikely it’s a new bull market; I continue to expect the bear market pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

Bonds in general and treasuries in particular are bouncing nicely as well. This bounce likely has more legs. As discussed more fully in Weekly Outlook, I think Treasuries are or soon will be in a new bull market … higher lows and higher highs.  I am playing this.

2 thoughts on “Deja Vu

  1. Peter Fife says:

    “I think Treasuries are or soon will be in a new bull market … higher lows and higher highs. I am playing this.”, I assume by ‘playing’, you mean trading, given the context, correct?

    Also, what etf are you using to ‘play’? SHV?

    And, hiw nimble does one need to be to ‘play’? Does it make sense to ‘play’ from Australia, assuming I sleep during US market hours? I suspect not, but thought it worth asking the question.

    I’m more than happy to invest for a short duration if it’s a high probability trade, as it appears to be.

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