I had planned to run only the “quick” SS posted in Markets Update, but due to the weighty implications of the current market juncture also ran the others. Much as we prefer to avoid unnecessary complexity, comparing the versions’ forecasts can give us a sense of where the greatest uncertainties lie. So here are all three together, using the same version nomenclature we used in Systems Beta. They’re all run based on the same data available as of the end of last week.
Bear in mind there is never certainty in predicting the future, especially in financial markets, and even the areas of agreement embed uncertainty, but more disagreement does indicate more uncertainty.