Synthetic Systems updates suspended
I regret to announce that Synthetic Systems updates are suspended indefinitely. A electrical storm this morning apparently bricked the computer it runs on, despite being connected in series through both a surge protector and line conditioner. Because the modem was knocked out too I suspect the internet cable was the route of the shock. I’m currently looking into repair options but have no estimate on how long it would take or if they would be assured to be successful. In the event the computer cannot be recovered, the next step would be to access the data stored on its drives and port it over to a new computer. But that could be a long process because SS ran on an old Excel version that doesn’t run on newer versions of Windows. In short, it’s not known when Synthetic Systems will receive further updates.
The mid-year update would have been run tomorrow. Posts, comments and other site updates may be less frequent for a while as well, due to the cable modem and WiFi connection being down and having to conduct site operations at the slower speeds available through cellular service. Hopefully that part will be remedied within a few days. Thank you for your patience.
Great content! Keep up the good work!
Sorry for not posting, the local water company dug up the main fibre cable from our town………….3,000+ people with no internet since Thursday…………including me.
Am using an wireless back up system……….
Mike
We must be on the same wavelength this week, Mike. ISP service call scheduled for next week. Hope yours is restored soon too!
I am so sorry to hear about this Finster. I would say shocking news but it doesn’t seem appropriate!
It must be quite upsetting with all the time and effort you’ve put into SS.
I hope you manage to find a solution.
Best wishes,
Llanlad
Thanks, llanlad2. It’s almost certainly a solvable problem given enough time. Alas that’s a scarce resource in itself, some of which has to be devoted to other damage from the lightning, a powerful strike about twenty feet from my front door. Don’t know how long, but it’s safe to say it’s not going to be in time for the mid year update…
Too bad hard disk storage has become outrageously expensive, otherwise I’d say it’s high time to run daily system and data backups with twice weekly dumps to external storage. Something to keep in mind once you get things sorted. Best of luck with the rebuild Finster.
Thanks, stereotomy. As it happens the algorithms and data are likely quite intact on the drives. Not to mention older backups on an external drive. It’s just that they’re no use without the rest of the computer. If it’s not reparable a tech could probably build a new computer around the old drives. If it can boot from them, then the older versions of Windows and Excel it runs on should be all there too, though the data updates themselves could take time. The weakness of standard backups is that they don’t cover everything, including the operating system; trying to get it to run on current versions would be another project. I even have a newer computer right next to the old one but the newer version of Excel on it lacks some essential features of the old one needed to run SS. Alas the term “upgrade” is too often mere marketing. Bottom line is the difficulty isn’t in recovering a loss of data and programming, it’s recovering the whole operating environment. If the unit can be repaired (eg new power supply), that’s pretty well taken care of; otherwise it could get complicated.
A remarkable thing is that there were two other devices in both connections with the outside world. The power line had both a surge protector and a high end line conditioner, neither of which showed any damage. The data line had a cable modem and a router, the modem was damaged but the router (adjacent the computer) is fine. The computer was also off at the time.
>But that could be a long process because SS ran on an old Excel version that doesn’t run on newer versions of Windows.
I don’t know what older version of Windows and Excel Synthetic Systems ran on but assuming it’s Windows 95 and Office 95 or newer, it should be easy enough to create a virtual machine with that environment and the virtual machine can be hosted on a physical computer running a much newer version of Windows.
I would actually be quite surprised if you need the old 16-bit version of Windows and Excel. However, I believe those should be able to run on versions of Windows up to Windows XP. Microsoft was actually quite good about backward compatibility until then.
Thanks, Milton. Indeed it would be possible to create a virtual environment. The bottleneck is less a lack of possibilities than of the time to consider and implement them. As mentioned earlier, besides the computer, there was other damage that needs to be addressed. It could be weeks before I even get to the computer. Once that is taken care of I then need to have a functioning computer. My next step would to take the computer to a tech to attempt repair. In theory I could do it myself; I built the last computer before this one, but a properly experienced and equipped tech could do it much more efficiently. If this works, it’s by far the shortest distance between two points. I was simply making the point that it’s unknown yet how much would need to be done and that therefore I have no time frame for resuming SS updates.
It was incidentally Excel 95 running on Windows 2000 or Windows 7. Win2000 ran it cleanly, but even Win7 started to show some glitches.
If all else fails, it’s also possible to just recreate SS on a new computer with new software. But that would also mean finding other workarounds and patches, rebuilding the financial data, and tweaking and testing. Which would be extraordinarily time consuming and I would only consider that after … well … all else fails.
There is one bit of potentially good news. When browsing local repair services, I ran across a listing for the tech that originally built this computer (it was a custom rig) some fifteen years ago. It’s possible the listing is dated, but if in fact he is still available he would be by far the best shot at a repair and making the question of next best solutions moot.
The possibility of getting the initial tech expert sounds promising Finster. All the best for the restoration efforts.
Thanks, sunpearl71. It could come back better than ever. Fingers crossed…
Alas the number for the original tech is out of service. On to the list of alternate repair services.
Local repair shops are nearly nonexistent; search results are horrendously out of date; several listings no longer exist. I dropped off the computer at the only one around just now. The tech seems confident he can repair it.
🤞
One step forward, one step back … our ISP was out this morning and restored internet service. Our borough manager was here this afternoon with less encouraging news … the stricken tree – a majestic monument dating as far back as the town’s founding – may have to be sacrificed.
The momentary upside … the Fourth of July Eve blast fulfilled my fireworks fix fast … a mere few yards away, I swear I could see the ⚡️ right through the walls!
Latest development in this saga is that having just had my internet connection restored yesterday and a new modem installed, my router quit. A delayed reaction from a lightning strike four days earlier? Regardless, it looks like a new router will be needed.
On the bright side, I’ve at least been able to avoid having to rely on a slow cellular connection, having instead resorted to activating my CAR as a WiFi hot spot. I had hesitated to order the full service OnStar One plan, but it’s turned out to come in handy!
Spoke to the tech today. He ruled out the simple fix of just needing a new power supply, tending to confirm my suspicion that the internet cable was the route of entry. That was also buttressed by the fact that the unit was off at the time and the (inexplicably delayed) failure of the router. Yet that the router managed to work for days after the strike, even though the modem failed, is puzzling, and suggests that the shock that entered the computer wasn’t completely overwhelming. After all, it made it through two other pieces of gear – the modem and the router – before arriving at the computer. And one of them survived for days.
I have ordered a new router, though for now I’m continuing to make liberal use of my car’s OnStar data connection for internet service. Cellular service around here can be garbage for hours at a time.
Anyway the hope for a quick computer fix is fading … he may have to order parts. On the bright side, he seems plenty competent and confident he can get it working, just not about how long it will take to get it there. I’m also encouraged by the fact that he answers his phone … not something that can be taken for granted these days!
Update. The tech confirms the computer needs a new motherboard; it has to be ordered, so there will be a wait. The power supply was unaffected. Meanwhile the new router should arrive this weekend.
Once you get back up and running you can shop for a vintage machine that will run your preferred software. Years ago our IT consultants showed us our whole MRP system – sales orders, accounting, bills of materials- would only run on our obsolete server. We sent them off to find us a suitable used vintage machine running the obsolete OS. Had them load the entire MRP system with all the data onto the vintage server and show us it worked. Then we unplugged it and put it into the big fireproof vault. Things you do in a small business. I recommend that approach for you.
Thanks, Thrifty. For now I still have a good shot at getting the current vintage machine back in working order. The tech was confident he can do it, he just had to order a new motherboard. That would be the ideal outcome since it would also have all the programs, data and algorithms. It would still take a while to backfill the data I usually update weekly, especially since I’m dealing with other property damage from the strike at the same time. Barring that, my guess is that this tech could probably cobble together another vintage machine along the lines you describe. 🤞
Progress!
I picked up the computer at the shop today, and after experimenting with some settings, again have access to its contents. Including Synthetic Systems. I cannot as yet however connect it to the internet, meaning that it’s difficult at best to get data into it or get its results out to you. For whatever reason the ISP connection seems to be limited to television.
This fortunately should be more of a downhill battle. It will take some time but the light at the end of the tunnel is clearly in sight.
Moving more quickly than expected. I was able to update the last two weeks input data manually this afternoon. I just ran the mid year SS update, only a few days later than I would have originally. Alas I have no way to get it to you … yet.
At the moment my only internet connection is via cellular, a line of communication my computer has no access to. Meanwhile, the differences from last quarter’s forecast, as expected, are incremental. The most noticeable is SS is somewhat less bullish on gold over the next quarter or few. Once the internet connection is restored I expect to post the mid year update in the Synthetic Systems section as usual. Updates are by the way dependent only on the way they are named; for consistency’s sake even if the run is performed late it will be based only on data available as of the first Friday close after the beginning of the designated quarter (or year).
Great news Finster.
I’m very glad you managed to get things up and running without having to go back to the very start.
I hope any other damage that was suffered is set to rights soon too.
As for SS being less bullish about gold, this begs the question- is it less bullish against something in particular? If I’ve been paying attention, something else should be more bullish or less bearish?
Or a messy combination of the two! 😉
Thanks for the encouraging words, LL. In re that messy combo, uhm, yes. You are of course correct that it has to go somewhere, though nothing else really stuck out, possibly distributed among the remaining asset classes. The gold change itself wasn’t particularly dramatic. But as a rule when SS misses on something as far as it did with gold last quarter, I take its forecast for the next with an extra grain of salt anyway. In fact you may recall we were getting skeptical on gold back in January when it was going vertical; always an ominous portent. This was disappointing given that up until then SS had pretty well nailed gold, even calling last year’s fourth quarter dip. But an object lesson in the value of taking into account all the indicators at your disposal.
In that vein, I’m just not seeing a clear direction for gold for the next few months. The new boss at the Fed is a big variable we’re watching closely, albeit one SS knows nothing about. It could be another couple meetings or so before we get a better sense of near to medium term outlook. Longer term though, the federal debt remains the elephant in the room … a bullish elephant.
Meanwhile bear in mind that SS updates are incremental almost by necessity. If, say, the 2026.25, 2026.50 & 2026,75 updates all produced entirely different forecasts for 2027, it would be useless. At least two forecasts would have to be totally spurious. Only if successive forecasts are in broad agreement about a particular future time frame could they have any credibility at all. So the significance of any one quarterly update is implicitly noncritical. The object of the updates is that they converge toward the actual progression of the markets for a given time frame as they approach it, and become it as it becomes the actual past.
Computer repaired.
Internet restored.
Synthetic Systems 2026.50 posted.