Less for thee … More for me
Social Security has announced the cost of living benefit adjustment for 2026: 2.8%. Medicare has announced the the cost of medical insurance adjustment for 2026: 11.3%.
A key difference is in direction of flow. Social Security benefits are payments from the government to citizens. Medicare premiums are payments from citizens to government.
Maybe Medicare could use some help from hedonic adjustments?
BLS said this morning it’s 3.0%. September versus a year ago. Headlines are trumpeting it variously as “cool” or “soft” or “mild”. Astonishing. Kinda like Washington budgeting, where they project a 5% increase and call a 4% increase a “cut”. This 3% is a full percentage point higher than the Fed’s target, actual inflation is running at least another few percentage points above that, and Wall Street media are celebrating a supposedly low reading. You’d be hard pressed to find ordinary Americans describing inflation as low.
In case there was any remaining doubt Wall Street lives in a different world than Main Street.
“Worries persist that Trump’s tariffs could cause another round of painful inflation…”
I guess we’re just supposed to forget about the Fed abandoning its inflation target, cutting interest rates, halting QT, readying the next round of QE …
I tell my wife, gold will hit $5000+, we’ll be millionaires, and a loaf of bread will cost $20.
You can already push $20 for a fast food meal. At this rate one will soon have to be a millionaire just to aspire to lower middle class.
BREAKING:
🇩🇪 🇨🇳 German companies have started trading industrial secrets in exchange for Chinese rare materials Bloomberg
To keep rare earth supplies flowing, German companies are giving China a front-row seat to their industrial blueprints: diagrams, supply chain layouts, customer lists, and even 3-year production forecasts.
All this, just to get a 6-month license for rare earth supplies.
The German government reportedly has no clue what’s being handed over and no real plan to stop it.
Officials literally had to ask German firms what China was collecting and most didn’t even respond.
Smaller manufacturers are already shutting down. Big firms are playing along to survive.
The data covers sectors such as defence contractors, car part suppliers, and precision toolmakers.
https://news.sky.com/story/manchester-pride-put-into-voluntary-liquidation-as-money-owed-to-artists-13455289
Ah, the free money ran out………….
RED ALERT
https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/suppliers/an-nexperia-chips-us-production-outlook-1025/
Gold appears determined to break back below $4000. I’m on record as saying a three handle would appear a bargain to folks who have missed out, supporting its price. In addition, the overbought condition has been relieved, the fast money has left the building, and it looks like a three wave (Elliott) correction is nearing completion. If I am right, it won’t go very far below for very long. If it does, then I am wrong! I’ve followed gold since about 1973 – my dad was a seventies gold bug – but it’s not impossible;-)
Indeed gold has dipped back below $4000, and has as of this moment regained the four handle. While I don’t see a long period far below $4000, I also don’t foresee it off to the races again soon either. Without the fast money traders piling in, it’s a better environment for investors … we can finally catch a breath. Near term direction is anybody’s guess but long term direction is up … for now I continue to see gold as cheap below $4000 and dear above $4400.
Great day, i got Mums weight up a bit & beter diet.
My Sister & Bro came round, very positive visit 🙂
On the Gold front, well what’s changed?
The Western bums are still broke & going brok-er
In other news, Argentinian President Javier Milei has won a decisive mandate in the election. This is serving as rocket fuel for Argentinian assets, CRESY for instance is up over 25% from last week’s close.
The US stock market continues to narrow and become more concentrated in the largest cap names. The below chart is of VOO versus RSP, the market cap weighted S&P 500 versus an equal weighted S&P 500, a direct measure of market cap versus the average. The narrowing concentrating trend has been going on since the beginning of 2023, nearly three years. This reflects the economy at large, where a minority of the population has received the majority of the gains in wealth. Probably just a coincidence that 2023 was when the Fed gave up its inflation fight.
Consumers Haven’t Felt This Bad About the Economy Since 2022
But we have AI!
New homes falling apart
Morning Gang
Ok, lets start the day……..
Amazon has sacked off the 1st 30,000 workers as it starts its drive to AI. Its said that it might sack 600K in the end as a result.
UAE has told the ECCP (Euro-nazis) that they can get stuffed ref one of their ECO Ditats. In a nut shell they told them “Lose the law or lose the Gas”………
Trump tried to bully China, China pulled its rare earths/Car computer chips. Trump now “Hopeful” of a trade deal. …….it was an attempt at trying to drive a wedge between Russia & China.
Russia rolling up more of Ukraine………….
………..& Gold…….?………..Oh well
Trump should spend less time thinking about Russia and China and more about America. Last time I checked, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid were all in deep financial doodoo, and along with the tax code, waaay tooo complicated. If making America more globally competitive is what you want, fixing them is the surest way to do it. Keep your promise to put America First!
Ah…………..Another Automotive delight
https://www.carscoops.com/2025/10/byd-declares-war-on-japans-tiny-evs-with-its-first-kei-car/
Performance
Limited
Electric
Battery
………..Or PLEB cars for Plebs..
This piece is interesting not just for what it says but for who’s saying it. Solid MSM …
Gold’s selloff may be an opportunity in disguise for investors as the Fed looks to cut interest rates
A steady period seems to be giving way to a “Prep” for the next leg up.
Trump chest beating, but the rest of the World knows the winds of change are blowing once again.
Looks fun
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/honda-e-replacement-uk-bound-tiny-ev-manual-gearbox
Wall Street media is giddy over Nvidia breaking a five trillion dollar market cap, a figure bigger than the GDP of every country except the US and China. I don’t share the euphoria. The vaunted Mag Seven are getting so big, we’re effectively growing a new government. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet etc already dictate the terms of participation in the information economy. Customer service is nonexistent. They are essentially unresponsive to customer satisfaction, preferring to sell sizzle and hype. You can for instance find complaints spanning years about iPhones insisting on misinterpreting non-phone numbers as numbers with no opt-out, or automatically dialing numbers unintentionally just by scrolling through recent calls. No forward delete key. Things easily remedied if the company gave a damn. Office apps are out of service today because the company made them dependent on an unreliable online connection. You will use their products, like them, and like liking them. If you don’t, you can get a cabin in the mountains.
This is very much reminiscent of the US auto industry before it was decimated by Japanese competition in the seventies. These oligopolies have been nurtured into Frankensteins by years of easy money. It’s hard to see the big picture of concentrating power and still feel like celebrating.