The Fed Announces
The Federal Open Market Committee announcement:
As usual, the meaningful action is in the bond market, a far more reliable indicator of interest rates:
The Fed Announces
The Federal Open Market Committee announcement:
As usual, the meaningful action is in the bond market, a far more reliable indicator of interest rates:
Quick reminder; Financology commenting guidelines can be found on the site menu at Comments.
As usual (since the Fed adopted the dubious “forward guidance” practice), the statement was as it had previously guided … no actual policy change. The action was all talk and dots, with slightly less in projected rate cuts over the next few meetings. Of course by then we will have new data pretty much obviating anything the Fed forecasts now, with the net result being this was policy-wise virtually a non-event.
F22 arriving in UK, large numbers of other planes……….i think WW3 is on!
Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.
Considering the news flow, markets seem unconcerned. Stocks and bonds rose slightly today, and gold fell a bit. Go figure.
Ok, am sorry………but i meant what i said.
What i think will happen is Trump will have to go before the house to ask for war. The house will ask him for proof of Iran nukes…..rather tough since Tusi just said the CIA sez they not working on one.
Trump will be told “No”.
trump will demand inspections in Iran, not just the sites but ALL of Iran’s sites, which they refuse. Trump will try to set up some sort of “Tripwire” were he has automatic permission to go to war………… the House will not allow itself to get caught like that & say “No, you come back to us 1st & WE will decide on war or not.
The conflict will cool down & peter out……..Both Trump & BiBi will be in MEGA big trouble.
Trumps “Big, beautiful bill” (BBB) will be DOA…….then they will seek to remove him, like Nixon they find something….
Trump tried to do this without the “OK” from the Deep state…….they will remove him for it.
So, what about the rest of it?
Gold/Bonds/Interest rates?
I’m not necessarily disagreeing; just saying something doesn’t add up. I think you said you were surprised gold hasn’t hit $4000 yet.
Indeed, i fully expected $4,000 gold.
When i worked at the home office i would keep an watchful eye on the Gold price. If i saw it spike i knew something was up….
Gold is puzzling. I had expected it to go below $3000 before it went over $4000, but that was before the war escalation. War tends to be funded by inflation.
As far as bonds go, Treasuries have been trending higher since around May 21. So interest rates have been modestly declining. This is in opposition to the supposedly increasingly slightly hawkish Fed, but consistent with what happened last fall when the Fed was cutting and the bond market was hiking. The bond market has been calling the shots. Only the shortest rates follow the Fed, while bond investments, car loans, mortgages, etc follow the bond market. The distinction matters because the bond market leads, the Fed follows.
Another angle … bonds are a better investment when inflation is lower, so paradoxical as it may seem, higher Fed rates can lead to lower bond rates; conversely, when the Fed is running easy money, investors demand more inflation protection and higher rates.
So when investors have confidence in the Fed, Fed rates and bond rates can more or less move together, but when confidence flags, they can move in opposition.
Getting back to things, the unwashed SCUM who run this nation are suddenly looking relaxed. I suspect they been told that Trump will cover their ass, EG $ swaps so Blighty is for the time being spared a MEGA crash.
Oh, BTW its “OK” now to start drilling in the North sea for Oil/Gas once again…………..Greta?, Greta who?
Particular leadership aside, I think Trump has a bit of a soft spot for the mother country. Good to hear anyway that they’re reopening North Sea energy. Except for your dispatch from England, I wouldn’t have known such a thing … thanks.
IDK … Greta of Hansa and Greta?
very bemused to find Mark C the PM of Canada & former Bank of England gov is going full speed at Oil/Gas production. while BOE go he threatened anyone trying to fund oil/gas with bankruptcies!
Central bankers are politicians. We have Powell using tariffs as an excuse to withhold the rate cuts Trump wants. At the same time he can pressure Trump on tariffs (on behalf of Wall Street, which hates tariffs) and try to shift the blame to tariffs for the results of the Fed’s monetary malfeasance, whether it’s recession or inflation.
I’m not saying the Fed should cut rates, but it had far less justification when it cut last fall ahead of the election.
In any case, the word “uncertainty” and all its variations are getting to be grossly overused. It’s an all-purpose excuse to ignore the data and play politics. If it’s truly important and you don’t know, you have no business deciding interest rates for seven billion other people.
Mega’s weekly round up:- Trump blinked (i think).
Very hot her in Blighty right now so i had to wait till quite late to walk jess (My GSD). Spent time walking by a river that runs though the back fields……had time to think things out.
I might be proven wrong, but i think US will not attack Iran.
Forget world opium or the american people, the American elite are pissed……this little operation was launched WITHOUT their blessing & oh boy there is going to be fall out.
Yes Trump must posture
He must try to look for away of NOT Climbing down, even though he must.
J D Vance has had a few things to say:-
The US Vice President is against the US involved in the WAR with Iran – Reuters
Reuters reports that US Vice President JD Vance has said that the US ‘shouldn’t be directly involved
He is suggesting that the Israelis were going to drag the country into war.
Trump is finished, one gamble too many, stupid, senseless move with little chance of success. I no idea who talked him into it, but he was a fool listen. The powers to be will force his removal…….i suspect J D Vance is getting a “Gerald Ford” feeling right now…….if he is given a chance he might be able to mend fences, might restore some credibility back to the White House indeed, America.
We see.
Mike
Breaking news …
Trump Confirms Strikes On Iran’s Nuclear Sites: Fordow, Natanz, And Esfahan “Successfully Targeted”
Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility has long been a focus of international concern
Fox News reports the operation involved six “bunker buster” bombs dropped by multiple B-2 stealth bombers and thirty Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from U.S. submarines positioned approximately 400 miles away.
Early indications are this is not a general strike on Iran, but intended to be a limited targeting of nuclear facilities, particularly the underground Fordow enrichment site. What happens next however is unknown.
Trump has just spoken:
“Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated”.
Well, i was wrong……………unless he already hit what israel has hit & might call it a day………..we see
Ok, its 14:00 here in Blighy, i watched Trump……a worried if not shocked man.
He bounced rubble at already bombed sites……then told Iran not to hit back……..they not hit him but they are hitting Israel.
Most nations are now preping to pull their duel nations out…..
This is NOT over
ZeroHedge reports “Going all-out, six B-2 bombers dropped a full dozen of the enormous “bunker-busters” on the site, a US official tells the New York Times.”.
There is some conflict over the extent of the damage. While Trump asserts the key nuclear enrichment facilities were destroyed, Iran counters that damage was minimal. There are no reports of radiation leaks.
That wouldn’t be a good outcome if it failed to achieve its core objective yet succeeded in riling up the Iranian regime and directly involving the US in the war.
A potential positive is more speculative. Some rumors suggest this escalation in Iran could be connected with a de-escalation in Ukraine.
The fuller ramifications will only become apparent with the passage of time.
Ok, CBS is talking up an “Iran terror attack in America”……….False Flag coming
Iran sez it could last up to 6 months …….because Israel will be totally rubble by then. I suspect Trump is going to hang BiBi out to dry? Meantime Israel now wants a “Time out” like Ukraine……..
Mike
In contrast to the geopolitical implications, the market implications are clear. Based on the events as they stand now, we can expect higher gold and oil prices when markets reopen. Beyond that, it’s safe to say that the usual market drivers will be overwhelmed by geopolitical developments until more clarity on the latter emerges.
Well, Israel wants a “Time out” & they not getting it……MAGA is dead, that base will look for a new home even AOC could offer them a home…….Mid terms will be a brutal bloodbath
From the Telegraph:-
America is on alert for an attack on home soil by Iranian-backed terrorists, JD Vance has warned.
Authorities are preparing for a possible attack after Donald Trump bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday night, with security being increased at places of worship in major cities.
Speaking to NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday morning, Mr Vance, the US vice president, claimed that individuals “on the terrorism watch list” had been allowed to enter the country during Joe Biden’s administration.
“We feel very confident in our FBI and law enforcement that we’re on top of the situation, but yeah, we’re looking at this very closely,” he continued.
“We’re doing everything that we can to keep our people safe.”
Police in Washington, DC, New York and other major American cities said they had increased their presence outside places of worship on Sunday following the US air strikes.
The White House has reportedly been monitoring possible Iranian sleeper cells in the US, which could be ordered by Tehran to launch an attack in retaliation for the damage inflicted on its nuclear programme.
The next 48 hours are considered the most dangerous period for an Iranian attack, either on American civilians or military in the Middle East or on home soil, US officials told NBC News.
OK, if Iran closes the sea way we looking at 20% of world oil going off line………how much of a blow & to whom?
Yedioth Ahronoth, citing Israeli officials, says that Israel wants to end the war with Iran this week
They added that Israel will ‘immediately accept’ a ceasefire if Iran proposes it
Trump is lashing out at GOP members, he is clearly scared where this is going….
The gold enigma continues. Given the high drama geopolitical headlines, it’s striking that it’s trading up only a few dollars.
About 0.25%. Oil futures are up about 3%, and S&P futures are down around 0.40%. Directionally as expected, but not a particularly dramatic reaction overall.
The next 24 hours will set the tone for the week.
As you know i was personally very “Up set” by Trump’s actions……but it seem its far worse than that. He invited the India PM to dinner last week. Indian press say he fully intended to threaten the Indian PM while he was in the process of “Iran regime change”.
The Indian PM hates him & refused to attend……now its clear what little scam Trump would have pulled the Indian PM is “Some what” upset……..as is most of the rest of the World.
Suddenly MAGA+ some DNC types are coming out swinging, but something else is happening. Tucker Carlson, Ana Kasparian etc are coming out swinging……yes its natural but there clearly some force organising it……hidden but there…………i note that the CIA didn’t find any evidence of a bomb program……..they did not want Trump to attack………Trump attacked without getting their say so………….now Trump encircle is trying to rally the troops…..note Trump trying to HIDE under his MAGA hat (He wears it full time now)……….it wont work, its blown like that nuclear reactor In Ukraine………..the Trump gang are saying “3.6 rogens, not great, no terable”
…………….its not 3.6, its 15,000!
As for APAC & co…….i think they going to find they have a “New relationship” with the American people.
Mike
OK, Qatar just closed its airspace, US base about to bombed
It all has a very “Staged” feel to it…………or the time being
OK, looks like its winding down, at lest Usa v Iran……Iran V Israel is going to keep running.Iran intends to give Israel a good going over with the intent that they get the message that they must not try to pull this nonsense every again.
As for Iran they have the respect of many nations & i suspect they will be helped to reach critical mass.
Another “Success” for Bibi……
Meantime in Blighty:-
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/367153/byd-and-octopus-energy-team-all-inclusive-ev-deal
Get the PLEBS to store power for us!
Mike
This would explain the apparent disconnect between headline drama and market action. Iran gets a face saving retaliation and America can say it’s satisfied. Markets apparently suspected it wasn’t going to be as bad as it looked. I only knew that something wasn’t adding up. Gold and oil both mounted lackluster rallies and then sold off. Stocks rose. Even Treasuries rallied, presumably on relief the already dire fiscal picture wasn’t getting immediately direr.
It would be premature to conclude peace is assured; in times like these anything can come out of left field. But if this means that US vs Iran is concluded, the state of things looks more like it did before the US raid. We still don’t know how successful it was in clipping Iranian nuclear enrichment, but the administration can nevertheless claim it did its part.
The Trump administration also claims it has negotiated a cease fire between Israel and Iraq. This is as yet unconfirmed, but if hostilities between all three parties can end, it would be a win-win-win.
For now at least that lets markets breathe a sigh of relief.
They at it again……………..lets not forget who attacked whom, Iran will want the last word.
Mike
Mega to get TAXED to the MOON
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-government-slash-industrial-energy-costs
Well, that just about wras it up for Gold
Everything depends on this cease fire. If it doesn’t hold up, WWIII is in play. And Trump’s foreign policy is a disaster. If it does, he’s going to look like a genius.
Markets seem to think it’s turned for the better. Stocks up heartily. Crude crashed. Gold getting killed, as a wit once said;-) My <$3000 before >$4000 is back in play. But gold’s Big Kahuna is still the immense debt and the correspondingly immense pressure to monetize it. I want to own the whole array of physical commodities, conspicuously including gold.
…….& Silver?
Mike
Question for me? Silver tends to trade like a cross between copper and gold. Jesse Colombo talks about this. Synthetic Systems tracks copper and gold, so for the silver forecast, (literally) read between the lines.
I did plan a major writing blog on this subject but i cut to the chase:-
Iran WAS building a bomb, the fact that they had 65% (& counting) enriched yellow cake sez it all. Iran wants to be THE leading muslin nation & fighting Israel makes them the top boys.
Israel wants greater Israel, they already taken Syria by proxy & they need to take the Lebanon. Only Iran + Iran Nuke is now holding up “the project”.
US is looking to disengage from the Middle East…….She has plenty of oil/gas in US/Canada/Mexico + New Green tech will start coming on strong. Iran lost people & to a lesser degree so did Israel, the biggest loss however was America.
I fully understand that Trump was forced to act, i suspect that he got good intel that Iran was up to full bomb mode. Like Margret Thatcher when she got intel that Argaine where about to attack the Royal Navy she had to react & could NOT give the source of the information.
However, his use of Twitter etc to gloat over the death of the lead Iranian negotiator (+wife) a man he warmly thanked only a few hours before was shocking. It will leave damage to the office of the President LONG after Trump has gone.
……………….& Go he will.
He attacked without the backing of his party or the Establishment……..they will both act now to remove him. Not on this point but like Nixon they wait then strike. His party are shocked & him turning on them like mean the midterms will be a DNC landside, as for MAGA its DEAD, he killed it.
Mike
Aye, Trump has no filter between mind and mouth. It may have helped him get where he is; frankness is a rare quality in political candidates that while offensive to many also strikes many as refreshing. He may not always be telling the indisputable truth, but it’s the truth about what he’s thinking. Even if it might be different the next day. The same quality, alas, is not so helpful when it comes to actually doing the job.
The MAGA constituency isn’t as monolithic as the media would like to portray. A small minority might follow wherever Trump leads, but it’s mostly a patchwork of issues like illegal immigration opposition, anti-war, woke culture, big government, etc, but also of people who just wanted the Biden-Harris company out.
The sizable anti-war contingent is plainly not pleased that the war in Ukraine continues and the same for the Middle East. It was appalled at the direct US involvement. But it is also relieved that, at least so far, it has been a quick one-off rather than an ongoing war, and pleased that at least so far, it appears to have actually brought an end to the Israel-Iran war.
Many are taking a wait-and-see attitude … if by the time mid terms are approaching there is peace around the world or at least the US isn’t involved in any wars, he will get at least a passing grade on foreign policy.
Germany & Italy wants its GOLD
Once upon a time i wanted to visit America……………..not so much now
https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938161326364188991?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Mega’s dispatches from England:- Failure bring more Failure
The British Prime minster is in BIG trouble.
1st of all we had the Ukraine war, which is lost for the WEST, Blighty bet BIG on Ukraine & its come up “Snake eyes”. Then we has the Mossad/Cia/Mi6 op in Iran, that didn’t go well either.
Now on the Home Front the PM find another loss.
His flagship welfare reform bill which was an attempt to try to get fat white english people whom can not be so disposed to get off ass & do something belittling as a job that effectively pays less then them getting welfare.
So, last night the Labour party rank & file turned on this very modest attempt at cutting back government spending………..about 36% of his MP’s threatened to vote it down………..so he withdrew it & replaced it with a MEGA watered down bill that is nothing but a face saving act.
His time is short,not long to go.
Mike
Mega’s dispatch from England:- Lots of Trouble Usually Serious
Lotus cars, never a great money maker is in trouble again.
The British AA (our version of the AAA) would forever “Blessed” Lotus with LOTS OF TROUBLE USUALLY SERIOUS (L.O.T.U.S) almost all the road side breakdowns required a tow truck.
Well, it was a sort of OK because Lotus were a small company who could never match Lexus. It was forgivable. Now however they were bought by China.
China did pour in new funds, they built a factory in China & begun production of a LARGE SUV weighing in at over 2.75 tons!……..not matching the “Just add lightness” spoken by its fonder.
China killed off the Elise, a car that weighed in under a ton & tried to bulsh1t everyone that the Evora mark 2 was a “Brand new car”. Lotus once again carried with sh1t customer service & there is NO excuse why!
Well, it seems people dislike handing over $120K in cash for this when they could go Porsche or Lexus or BMW or Merc etc. Now it seems that China wants Mega to bailout this Turkey!
NO!
Lotus has blead off funds from the UK government since the days before DE Loren.
China is threatening to sack off 1300 people…………..tough sh1t..Mega will NOT pay.
Mike
Aston in trouble?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/28/aston-martin-sues-italian-supplier-for-freezing-deliveries/
Another wet dream meets the real world
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/uk-pulls-plug-ps24-billion-desert-power-fantasy
The government has agreed to bale out LOTUS………….again.
Some interesting new car design features coming. Over the years the glass area on cars having been reduced, thicker & thicker pillars required by crash regs have reduced visibility in a big way. We now hear that Toyota next sports car will have specially shaped “A” pillars (Windshield) to give back some of that lost vison.
Mike
The Press in Israel has turned on BiBi, he is having meeting ref his court case, he trying to do a deal………..
Won’t be long till we find out just how hard Iran hit them with their counter strikes.
Since the pandemic, the number of PIP awards has more than doubled – up from 13,000 a month to 34,000 a month. That is around 1,000 people signing on to PIP every day – that is roughly the size of Leicester signing up every year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/welfare-bill-will-protect-the-most-vulnerable-and-help-households-with-income-boost#:~:text=Since%20the%20pandemic%2C%20the%20number,Leicester%20signing%20up%20every%20year.
https://news.sky.com/story/miliband-eyes-refinery-support-after-lindsey-collapse-13390511
Labour Gov trying to bale out EVERYTHING
Mike