Platinum
Financology has been a fan of platinum since inception. I’ve been a fan since sometime in the last century. The advent of platinum ETFs has made investing in this lustrous white metal – included in some of Financology’s more sophisticated model portfolios – easy, but this “white gold” has not kept up with its famous yellow cousin. Platinum has been dead money for twenty years, in dollar terms, a tough accomplishment given the depreciation of the dollar over that interval.
This has left platinum extraordinarily cheap. For years, ounce for ounce, platinum had traded at a substantial premium to gold, reflected in such cultural artifacts as “platinum” awards (eg records, medals, etc) being higher honors than their “gold” peers. But platinum has since fallen behind, as it more recently required only a third ounce of gold to buy a full ounce of platinum. Here is a chart of platinum in terms of dollars, followed by a chart of platinum in terms of gold. In these natural logarithmic charts, 0=ln(1) … so the horizontal zero level on the second chart corresponds to 1 ounce of platinum being at parity with 1 ounce of gold.
Still more recently, however, platinum has been coming back to life. Silver bulls often point to silver’s cheapness in terms of gold as a key tenet of the bullish case. To the extent that’s bullish for silver, it’s even more bullish for platinum … platinum is even cheaper. Our model portfolios however are non-partisan; they include platinum at parity with silver.
So platinum is up 7% since this post. Up 24% in the last three months. In the same three months, copper is up 3%, gold 14%, and silver 11%.
Stocks are up 9%. What’s kicking in the platinum afterburners? I haven’t found a convincing fundamental explanation for its outperformance. The most likely explanation is that it became unsustainably cheap. But it’s been cheap for a long time, so it’s more complicated than that. Better to say it stayed cheap while other things got more expensive. Now it’s doing some catching up.
What’s next is where it gets difficult. It ‘s plainly short term overbought, a circumstance that’s often followed by a selloff. At the same time, people who know more about it than I do caution against aggressively positioning for a selloff via shorting. Playing with white-hot white metal could get you your fingers burned. For most of us, whether platinum is a buy or sell depends on how much we have now; whether it’s less or more than our long term target. It’s still relatively cheap compared to many other assets, including its elementary commodity peers, but while that favors long term returns, it tells us little about the short term. Those who are considering establishing or raising a platinum allocation might well do so incrementally.
For technical analysis buffs, here’s a current treatment:
Gold Forecast: White Metals: The Awakening Is Here
A few comments on mining stocks. Since the days of iTulip (and before that, the Daily Reckoning) I’ve always taken the position that they are in no way a substitute for the metals themselves or metals tracking funds. Gold mining stocks for example are stocks, not gold. They have business risks that gold doesn’t … management, natural disasters, strikes, profits, losses, balance sheets, etc.
This doesn’t mean I think they should be avoided; I own some mining stocks myself. But they should be treated as part of a stock allocation, not a gold or commodities allocation, separate from bullion tracking funds, such as those included in the model portfolios.
More color on platinum:
Platinum Rising
Is it Finally Time to Buy Platinum?
Soaring Platinum’s Loud Signal
How Much Higher Can Platinum Go: “It Feels Like Someone Is Loading Up On A Flat Price Position”
I was aware of various conditions for higher platinum prices for the past year or two and was watching for a run where it wouldn’t be dead money. Once platinum finally caught a bid and I saw it as the possible beginning of a trend, I was surprised at how quickly and relentlessly the price went up. I waited nearly two weeks before I finally gave up yesterday, held my nose, and increased my position slightly.
Just a few hours after I finally bought, we get a 5.4% correction today. 🙂 I suppose on the bright side, I had sold some U.S. Treasury bonds to fund the purchase of the platinum and those bonds fell in price today, too. It seems that nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds at these confiscatorily low yields even in the face of a very dangerous war between Israel and Iran so I sold more bonds today and bought even more platinum.
Aye, we’ve been covering platinum for quite a while. A couple examples:
Okay, So What Do I Do Now?
Platinum Rising
The missing link has been the catalyst. Probably the best way to sum it up is that everything else (gold, silver, copper…) went up a lot and platinum was the last cheap thing left.
But referring to your trading experience, for sure if I had a nickel for every time something like that has happened to me, well, I’d have a lot of nickels. I don’t know of any foolproof way around it, but do generally try to take small bites and make purchases on declines. In a case like this I might only buy a fraction of my total intended purchase, so when it inevitably declines right afterwards, I can buy at least some on a dip. Looks like this worked for you too. With the advent of commission free trading it’s a lot more practical to make small trades than it used to be.
No guarantees, but sometimes it works out well. When stocks tanked in March and April I bought some VT on each decline, the bigger the dip the more. None of the trades looked very good at first, but within a few weeks they were all in the green.
You don’t always always have the choice, but I try to buy most things when the media are down on them or better yet not even covering them. It’s really difficult to accumulate things when people are excited about them. I like boring stuff … like platinum has been for most of the past twenty years;-)
Short term forecasts are hazardous by nature, but my guess is this will die down soon and media attention will turn elsewhere. I have no intention of building a large allocation to something as niche as platinum, but if I do add to my position, that would probably be the most likely circumstance.
FWIW mostly though I look more at the portfolio as a whole than individual assets. I do pretty much the 18:18:32:32 Model Portfolio. That includes PLTM by default, at about 1% or so. In that mix of assets, there’s almost always something that’s doing poorly, but as a whole it’s been doing well.