The latest weekly Synthetic Systems. This edition includes some under the hood refinements that make it not directly comparable to previous runs, so it’s posted solus.
Stocks this week have returned closer to trajectory mapped out in earlier runs. Bonds however have not. SS has been anticipating a decorrelation. The inflection point in stock and bonds on the chart occurs around the beginning of October, more consistent with the 2022.25 run than more recent ones.
Readers are reminded that the Bonds plot tracks infinite maturity UST … a theoretical species since the US Treasury does not currently issue perpetual bonds. The behavior of actual long term UST, for example as represented by VGLT or TLT, is similar though more muted. The broad iShares fund GOVT also follows its ups and downs, though more muted still. Vanguard’s extended duration Treasury fund EDV tracks quite closely.