A few weeks back we set a target of 3% on the ten year UST.
It was hit today. After nosing above that key level intraday, the ten year yield closed @ 2.99%. Remarkably, that was the lowest benchmark from five years on out, with the five, seven, twenty and thirty year yields all sporting solid three handles at 3.01%, 3.04%, 3.26% & 3.07%.
A victory lap may be premature though. We predicted a peak in the 3% neighborhood. So if the ten year gets much past 3.25%, that forecast is violated.
Regardless I continue to maintain that at minimum, Treasuries are no longer repulsive. Maybe even attractive, though the SS script doesn’t turn genuinely bullish until around the end of the third quarter.
Gold meanwhile appears to be following that script more closely than we had a right to expect. It is sharply off its March 8 highs, perhaps as UST yields begin to present colorable competition.