Will the real stocks please stand up
This is the view we usually see of the stock market. It is not just “stocks”, but of stocks priced in a currency, here the US dollar. Can you think of any way to chart just “stocks” without some pricing unit?
We have to choose one, but we can choose any one we want. Euros, yen … or, as in the next chart … gold.
Which is the real “stocks”?
The real money view says stocks are down 25% from their February 2024 highs.
Just don’t expect to hear it on CNBC.
You can make anything look like it’s going up by pricing it in a unit that’s going down.
It’s typically tacitly assumed that you can plot a chart of the value of stocks. But there isn’t any such thing. What’s the price of oil? Can you give a price without choosing some pricing unit?
The point is that every price chart involves not one, but two, commodities; the one you’re pricing and the one you’re pricing it in. Whether something is “going up” or “going down” depends on what you’re comparing it to.
Here we see that the question of whether stocks are in a bull market or bear market depends heavily on your choice of pricing unit. In dollars, they’re in a bull market. In gold, they’re in a bear market.
Which is more real? I think it’s the gold version. For just one piece of evidence, it would comport better with the picture we see in copper prices, not to mention houses, eggs…
Anyone want to take the other view?
Crashing stocks, crashing dollar.
The media’s big push to hang it all on tariffs is transparently a propaganda ploy. The bear market is already over a year old. Yet it’s practically impossible to read anything negative in recent business or economic headlines without it being tied to tariffs. Readers know I am far from on board with everything Trump is doing, but it’s patently obvious that the same thing has been driving establishment media press about all things Trump all along, from Russiagate to Daniels to lawfare, and maybe even two assassination attempts … a well-heeled elite stands to lose its easy ride on the government gravy train.
Gold about to get KILLED!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-03-27/gold-soars-goldman-sees-4500-tail-risk-2025
How high can gold go?
How far can fiat fall?
1/1=1
1/0.1=10
1/0.01=100
1/0.001=1,000
1/0.0001=10,000
… … …
… … …
… … …
New all time gold records practically by the hour … one just now at $3064.83.
Gold Eagle:
https://www.gold-eagle.com/
And from Kitco:
Trump order sparks mining debate
In the U.S., President Donald Trump’s recent executive order – Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production – is drawing praise and skepticism in equal measure. The order calls for expedited permitting of critical minerals, including uranium, copper, potash, and gold, citing national security and military readiness concerns.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-03-27/golds-record-rally-spurs-mining-ma-trump-targets-us-mineral-revival
I’m not reading much market impact into this though … whatever effect an executive order would have on bringing copper and gold out of the ground would pale next to the incentive of these prices.
$3077.21
Meantime in Blighty, your sentence depends on your skin tone
https://news.sky.com/story/sentencing-council-rejects-justice-secretarys-calls-for-guidance-rethink-amid-two-tier-justice-row-13337167
$3085
I know I’ve made this point before, but as long as the corporate media keep repeating the lie I will keep correcting it.
The Fed’s inflation dilemma just got more challenging as Trump’s new tariffs loom
Tariffs have nothing to do with inflation.
The Fed’s dilemma is not being made in the White House, it’s home grown. The Fed adopted a false definition of inflation and created its own conundrum. Full stop.
Will Trump go though with the 25% car tax?
Mike
All I can say is I hope not. And this is from one who supports tariffs … modest and broad tariffs. 25% is too high, whether it’s Mexico and Canada or autos, and too narrow. IIRC Trump had earlier floated the idea of 10% across the board, but afaik hasn’t mentioned it lately.
Speed bumps, not barriers. 25% on cars will price most imports out of the market and domestic car makers will match a good bit of it. Personally I’d love to buy one of those cheap Chinese electrics (my driving is almost all short trips) but even the preexisting policy was keeping them out of the US market. Trump’s “solution” of tax breaks for domestic car loans is just too much micromanagement and incentivizing just more toxic debt.
And 25% on Canada and Mexico is just pissing people off, for no clear economic benefit.
You want to help the US auto industry? Deregulate. Send the entire stinking festering pile of CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) regs to the scrap heap. Make it easier to make better cars cheaper and you’ll help not only US car makers but US car buyers too.
Deeply impressed by some EV’s from China
CATL & BYD are making great progress on Battery Tec.
CATL are about to roll out Sodium Ion battery tec…….200 Wh/kg
Big News is they well on with Solid state battery, we should soon seen 450 wh/kg & 600 Wh/kg by 2027.
As Ford CEO said “We need their Tec”.
Mike
Aye, solid state batteries are the killer app for electric cars. FWIW I’m neither pro-electric-car or anti-electric-car. I’m anti-one-size-fits-all and pro-choice. What kind of car somebody buys is between the seller and the buyer. The government should stay the heck out of it.
Gold continues to rise and stocks continue to fall (in dollar terms), further deepening the bear market. As of now gold futures are up 0.80% at 3139 and S&P futures are off by the same amount at 5577, expanding the margin by 1.60%.
Will we see gold>S&P? Nothing magic about that relationship (the units are different), except the last time it prevailed was in the GFC era. My memory must be failing me though because I don’t remember Trump tariffs being in the news at the time…